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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 13:27:27 GMT -5
Currently I have this: The conversions may need some adjustments to Detweiler. Any help is a big help. I know the AC sectional is strong, but I cannot believe it is that strong, nor do I think Robinson is the 12th best team in the State some adjustments to Metro East Sectional conversion is needed. I am quite sure on the Elmwood and it looks like PBL is about 10s faster than previous years.
Conversions PBL: -20 AC: -30 MEL: -60 Elmwood: -27
1 66 Winnebago 2 149 Rockford Christian 3 151 Westmont 4 156 Marquette 5 161 Oregon 6 167 Elmwood-Brimfield 7 202 PBL 8 230 BEECHER 9 253 Toledo Cumberland 10 287 Knoxville 11 287 Tolono Unity 12 295 Robinson 13 298 Shelbyville 14 310 Sherrard 15 312 Tremont 16 355 Henry (H-Senachwine) 17 398 Nashville 18 424 Carlinville 19 460 Eldorado 20 464 Lawrenceville
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rt20
All-State
Posts: 207
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Post by rt20 on Oct 29, 2007 13:33:59 GMT -5
people have been saying AC is probably 10-15 seconds.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 29, 2007 13:48:11 GMT -5
I have been hearing 1:20 to 1:30 on MEL. Your Elmwood and PBL looks good. I have no idea on acc. If you take 15 off of ACC that gives them over 12 guys under 16:00 including three Marquette kids.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 14:04:20 GMT -5
Conversions:
AC: -12 PBL: -20 MEL: -85 ELMWOOD: -27
1 87 Winnebago 2 169 Elmwood-Brimfield 3 196 Rockford Christian 4 197 PBL 5 198 Robinson 6 204 Marquette 7 209 Westmont 8 222 Oregon 9 231 BEECHER 10 252 Toledo Cumberland 11 286 Knoxville 12 287 Tolono Unity 13 306 Nashville 14 307 Shelbyville 15 313 Sherrard 16 315 Tremont 17 341 Carlinville 18 365 Henry (H-Senachwine) 19 397 Eldorado 20 418 Lawrenceville
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 29, 2007 14:15:14 GMT -5
ACC sectional is the toughest without a doubt. Two in top three and five in top eight. Should be interesting.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 14:18:22 GMT -5
I have been hearing 1:20 to 1:30 on MEL. Your Elmwood and PBL looks good. I have no idea on acc. If you take 15 off of ACC that gives them over 12 guys under 16:00 including three Marquette kids. All State could be at 15:50 this year in Class A. Not bad considering some of the talent that has moved up a class in the last 3 years. I like how well the Class A schools have responded by losing some of the better programs of old and having more kids step up and show off their abilities. If you think about the kids in the old Oregon and PBL sectional that were all-state material and were shut out over past few years it comes as no surprise. You still had one of the better runners in the state shut out because of a bad day at PBL.
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dacse
Contributor
Posts: 45
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Post by dacse on Oct 29, 2007 14:48:34 GMT -5
I think Beecher and Cumberland will finish closer or above PBL. PBL's # 5 was about 30 slower than the other 2 #5's so this should make a big difference in how they finish.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 14:56:39 GMT -5
The problem with that is PBL will have 3 in at or under 16 flat and Beecher will have 3,4, and 5 that have to catch PBL's 4th. That's a boatload more points than the 15 or 20 places that will likely seperate the #5's. Not saying it can't or won't happen, but the state meet is the same size as a sectional meet this year.
If Cumberland runs the race I know they are capable of them, beating both PBL and Beecher should not be a problem. However, based on the last race everyone ran at Sectionals. It's not likely to happen, then again it might.
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dacse
Contributor
Posts: 45
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Post by dacse on Oct 29, 2007 15:38:04 GMT -5
The problem with that is PBL will have 3 in at or under 16 flat and Beecher will have 3,4, and 5 that have to catch PBL's 4th. That's a boatload more points than the 15 or 20 places that will likely seperate the #5's. Not saying it can't or won't happen, but the state meet is the same size as a sectional meet this year. What times do you have for the Robinson runners? I believe they will have 4 guys at or under 16 (@ Patriot Invite 15:49, 15:54, 16:04, and 16:24) and their #5 (who normally beats C'lands #5) should beat PBL's #5. I still believe if Robinson's #5 runs well, they will finish in the top 3. I know your conversion is off of Sectional times, so maybe the times for the MEL Sectional are off a little?
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Post by pacemaker on Oct 29, 2007 17:01:38 GMT -5
dacse to extend on that our #5 is not the current #5 from the past to we have our 5 & 6 within 3 seconds of each other and the current #5 has pr'd the last 4 meets in a row accounting for conversions .. not trying to brag on my team just lending some information
@ peoria 10-13 Jones#5= 17:43 Current #5 Harp= 18:12 Regionals 10-20 Jones#5= 17:31 Current #5 Harp= 17:38 Sectionals 10-27 Jones#6= 18:52 Current #5 Harp= 18:48 for SIU -85secs Sectionals = Jones- 17:27 ---- Harp- 17:23
used the 85 secs from dbandre
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ochocinco
Contributor
Cursed by the number 4
Posts: 33
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Post by ochocinco on Oct 29, 2007 17:36:56 GMT -5
Thanks for doing the conversions but i think more than 20 seconds is needed to take off of PBL. Probly between 30 and 40 seconds.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 29, 2007 17:41:16 GMT -5
Is the AC sectional really that much better? Gadzooks!!! I did alittle bit on my own, and it seems to be about the same. I do have Robinson finishing higher, but that's about the only diffrence. I don't think the numbers are telling the whole story here.
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Post by redemption on Oct 29, 2007 17:41:37 GMT -5
I have been hearing 1:20 to 1:30 on MEL. Your Elmwood and PBL looks good. I have no idea on acc. If you take 15 off of ACC that gives them over 12 guys under 16:00 including three Marquette kids. All State could be at 15:50 this year in Class A. Not bad considering some of the talent that has moved up a class in the last 3 years. I like how well the Class A schools have responded by losing some of the better programs of old and having more kids step up and show off their abilities. If you think about the kids in the old Oregon and PBL sectional that were all-state material and were shut out over past few years it comes as no surprise. You still had one of the better runners in the state shut out because of a bad day at PBL. Class A didn't lose that many people though. Maybe 2-5 all-staters move up to AA....I think
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tfxc
Contributor
Posts: 46
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Post by tfxc on Oct 29, 2007 18:31:00 GMT -5
I think Class 1A only lost 2 teams also (BCC and ACC).
I am having trouble saying that the AC sectional will have 5 in the top 8. Robinson handily beat Marquette at the Peoria Heights meet the week before regionals. I would have to say Robinson will be in the top 3 or 4 on Saturday. We all know Bago is a lock at 1, and everything else is up for grabs. I would have to say Elmwood should be 2nd, and Robinson 3rd. Just my early guess.
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Post by oldskool on Oct 29, 2007 18:37:02 GMT -5
dbandre--are you saying that only 2-5 all staters from last year moved up? or are you saying that of all the teams that were A last year and moved up to AA you can only find 2-5 "would-be A class" all staters? Just looking for clarification. Thanks!
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Post by dbandre on Oct 30, 2007 12:17:51 GMT -5
dbandre--are you saying that only 2-5 all staters from last year moved up? or are you saying that of all the teams that were A last year and moved up to AA you can only find 2-5 "would-be A class" all staters? Just looking for clarification. Thanks! I am saying that despite move up by some schools, Class A has stepped a notch and more kids who have been left out of some very good sectionals in Class A in the past now are able to run the state meet and the state meet won't suffer from a significant drop in talent except it is missing 5 teams from previous years and 7 individuals.
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bacon
All-Conference
Posts: 55
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Post by bacon on Oct 30, 2007 14:38:25 GMT -5
The numbers are interesting.
I think i'll actually buy that AC was that strong. I think the bottom three ran very well at sectionals and thus are getting graded on one of their best meets of the year. Noone limped out of AC. Most likely one of the bottom 3 teams will not have a good race and finish out of the top 10.
As for the overall level of running in Class A, i agree it is strong and I expect it to get stronger. The Internet has made it much easier for people to figure out training methods. One of the biggest differences, in my opinion, between the old Class A and AA was the lack of quality coaches in Class A. Now, even if a kid or program is not blessed with the best coach, there are much more resources availible to them. People are realizing you just need some smart and dedicated kids to make a quality program. I think Eureka is a good example of that, even though they did have a great coach. I think they won state with only something like 9 guys on the team one year.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 30, 2007 19:07:43 GMT -5
Yeah, but four of those 9 where the Eureka fab four. Also having good/smart runners will only really help you short term. You've got to have a good coach, and a good system to win over a longer period of time. Eureka is a perfect example of that now.
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Post by notebook on Oct 30, 2007 20:26:15 GMT -5
Yeah Eureka is a good example. Isn't bago girls a prime example too? In the last 19 years they have won 9 times! Under 3 different coaches if im not mistaken. I don't know if they ever won under Roger Schimdt. Roger Fredrickson I know coached them to a bunch. Joe Erb has coached them through 2 and they are going for their 3rd this year. 10/20 wins. 50% aint to bad.
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Post by oldbutslow on Oct 31, 2007 13:33:24 GMT -5
Conversions: AC: -12 PBL: -20 MEL: -85 ELMWOOD: -27 1 87 Winnebago 2 169 Elmwood-Brimfield 3 196 Rockford Christian 4 197 PBL 5 198 Robinson 6 204 Marquette 7 209 Westmont 8 222 Oregon 9 231 BEECHER 10 252 Toledo Cumberland 11 286 Knoxville 12 287 Tolono Unity 13 306 Nashville 14 307 Shelbyville 15 313 Sherrard 16 315 Tremont 17 341 Carlinville 18 365 Henry (H-Senachwine) 19 397 Eldorado 20 418 Lawrenceville Forgive me (again!) for the being the ignorant new guy, but do these conversions mean that Detweiller is that much faster than the sectional sites? Just want to make sure I'm understanding the logic. If so, your second assessment of AC (-12) makes more sense than the first post (-30). That is a blazing fast course and my son ran his best time of the year there by far. Are you including factors such as the big meet adrenaline rush, the being pushed by an entire field of faster runners, etc? Or does that just sort of equal out for everyone involved? I'm just wondering. I took my son to the finals last year as an 8th grader just so he could see what the ultimate goal is. Then during the season we were planning on driving down again with several of his fellow freshmen to watch the races. But those plans have been scrapped as those guys are now going to be racing on Saturday! I guess the moral of the story is you never know what is going to happen. When my son kept talking about the different predictions for the sectional, I told him none of that matters, you just go out and run the best race you can and see what happens. I'm looking forward to seeing that all play out on Saturday.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 31, 2007 14:19:24 GMT -5
Conversions: AC: -12 PBL: -20 MEL: -85 ELMWOOD: -27 1 87 Winnebago 2 169 Elmwood-Brimfield 3 196 Rockford Christian 4 197 PBL 5 198 Robinson 6 204 Marquette 7 209 Westmont 8 222 Oregon 9 231 BEECHER 10 252 Toledo Cumberland 11 286 Knoxville 12 287 Tolono Unity 13 306 Nashville 14 307 Shelbyville 15 313 Sherrard 16 315 Tremont 17 341 Carlinville 18 365 Henry (H-Senachwine) 19 397 Eldorado 20 418 Lawrenceville Forgive me (again!) for the being the ignorant new guy, but do these conversions mean that Detweiller is that much faster than the sectional sites? Just want to make sure I'm understanding the logic. If so, your second assessment of AC (-12) makes more sense than the first post (-30). That is a blazing fast course and my son ran his best time of the year there by far. Are you including factors such as the big meet adrenaline rush, the being pushed by an entire field of faster runners, etc? Or does that just sort of equal out for everyone involved? I'm just wondering. I took my son to the finals last year as an 8th grader just so he could see what the ultimate goal is. Then during the season we were planning on driving down again with several of his fellow freshmen to watch the races. But those plans have been scrapped as those guys are now going to be racing on Saturday! I guess the moral of the story is you never know what is going to happen. When my son kept talking about the different predictions for the sectional, I told him none of that matters, you just go out and run the best race you can and see what happens. I'm looking forward to seeing that all play out on Saturday. Yes, Detweiler is a blazing fast course, one of the fastest in the country for 3 miles on grass. The State meet is really only 10 runners larger than a sectional this year at most. The adrenaline rush is mostly the same between sectional and state, the level of competition is usual higher for the top guys than the average runner who if they were mid pack before they typically are now, then again some great happen at the state meet unexpectedly too. The race has to be ran, but predictions like this can help coaches give a reasonable estimate of what to expect from their team and goals to shoot for, for the fans it's great stuff, and for the competitors they should care less.
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bacon
All-Conference
Posts: 55
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Post by bacon on Oct 31, 2007 14:38:03 GMT -5
Yeah Eureka is a good example. Isn't bago girls a prime example too? In the last 19 years they have won 9 times! Under 3 different coaches if im not mistaken. I don't know if they ever won under Roger Schimdt. Roger Fredrickson I know coached them to a bunch. Joe Erb has coached them through 2 and they are going for their 3rd this year. 10/20 wins. 50% aint to bad. Bago has been too good too long to show my point. My point was that I expect more programs to jump up, similar to how Eureka did. Of course, keeping a program up is a lot of hard work too, a different kind of work though. I think Class A used to be more about who could get five good athletes to go out for XC. Now it is about who can make runners. That is a very good thing, in my opinion.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 31, 2007 16:50:20 GMT -5
dbandre I would say that adrenaline is higher for the state meet. I've never gotten to run at state but I'd say it's got to be more exciting then sectionals. The teams upfront are all thinking about trophys, and the teams in the back are all just going crazy cause there at state.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 31, 2007 16:52:52 GMT -5
Sectionals is what determines if you go to state or not. That in and of itself has a bigger impact on the average runners in the field. Which of course has an impact on the front runners and teams. Controlling it is the key.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Oct 31, 2007 17:55:35 GMT -5
Hey dbandre, my Karma has taken a hit. I have been smited I think it was something I said You are still the karma king
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Post by runfst1 on Oct 31, 2007 18:57:03 GMT -5
I dont know about other people but for me running at state is nothing like running at sectionals. I have a much more adrenaline flowing when there are hundreds of people yelling at state opposed to when there is no one around at sectionals.
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tfxc
Contributor
Posts: 46
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Post by tfxc on Oct 31, 2007 19:05:01 GMT -5
After the top two boys teams, it is up for grabs. There are probably about 7 teams that have a legitimate chance to trophy. It should be a great and fun race to watch this weekend. Top 10 Boys:
1. Winnebago - What is new, they have totally dominated this year. They have had only one bad race in the last three years, and it as State in 2006.
2. Elmwood/Brimfield - Defending champs, but injuries have kept them from having a chance to repeat. They will give a good effort, but come up short...way short.
3. Robinson - This team has come out of nowhere this year. They have a very solid nucleolus but their pack is just a little too far back.
4. Rockford Christian - They had two in the top 8 at their VERY competitive sectional. They went from not qualifying last year, to in the trophy hunt this year. GREAT JOB!!
5. PBL - Yes I am picking PBL (the team I picked 8th last week). I was wrong last week about them, and without football in the picture, they are a completely different team.
6. Westmont - Another young team that will be around for a few years. Maybe one of the best coached Class 1A teams in the state.
7. Beecher - They just keep getting stronger and stronger as the year goes.
8. Cumberland - Another team peaking at the right time. They have ran great in the past 3-4 weeks.
9. Oregon - Trace Carlson has them focused and ready to go.
10. Marquette - Could be much higher if their 5th can have a break out race.
Others close to the top 10: Sherrard, Shelbyville and Nashville
This could be a great one!!
Girls: 1. Winnebago - Can you say 3 in a row!
2. Eureka - Starting to run strong, but not strong enough to run with Bago.
3. Elmwood/Brimfield - Off race last week... big race this week.
4. Aurora Christian - They have slipped in under the radar.
5. PORTA - Always tough at State.
6. St. Joe - They have come on real strong in the past month. Might have a chance to trophy.
7. Tremont - They have been up and down all year. Don't be surprised if they slip into the top 4.
8. Sparta - They don't get much recognition, but this just in...They are good, real good.
9. Monmouth - They have quietly put together a very solid season.
10. Uni High - They started out like a house of fire, but injuries have really hurt them.
Good Luck to all
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rt20
All-State
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Post by rt20 on Oct 31, 2007 20:44:22 GMT -5
Conversions: AC: -12 PBL: -20 MEL: -85 ELMWOOD: -27 I think after looking at results from the Patriot Inv., held on Detweiller two weeks before sectionals, you will probably end up adding 5-10 seconds to the AC sectional times. Runner/Patriot/Sectional Trancoso(Newman)/16:02/15:46 DeVenney(BV)/16:20/15:57 Small(GSW)/16:49/16:13 Hill(Marquette)/16:14/15:48 Rorem(Marquette)/16:25/16:06 Skromme(Marquette)/16:26/16:12 throwing out the high and the low Newman's team ran :23 slower per runner on Detweiller, BV was :23 slower on Detweiler per runner, and Marquette averaged :18 slower on Detweiller per runner
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Post by dbandre on Nov 1, 2007 0:05:04 GMT -5
Conversions: AC: -12 PBL: -20 MEL: -85 ELMWOOD: -27 I think after looking at results from the Patriot Inv., held on Detweiller two weeks before sectionals, you will probably end up adding 5-10 seconds to the AC sectional times. Runner/Patriot/Sectional Trancoso(Newman)/16:02/15:46 DeVenney(BV)/16:20/15:57 Small(GSW)/16:49/16:13 Hill(Marquette)/16:14/15:48 Rorem(Marquette)/16:25/16:06 Skromme(Marquette)/16:26/16:12 throwing out the high and the low Newman's team ran :23 slower per runner on Detweiller, BV was :23 slower on Detweiler per runner, and Marquette averaged :18 slower on Detweiller per runner I would agree with that assessment except what was the difference last year from Patriot to State Meet. It could be a consequence of training why this happened or AC is tremendously fast or both. I am struggling with making it a 0s adjustment, much less one that is +5 or +10. Peoria Heights was ran at 1pm and the temperature that day was really nice in the morning for racing, but I cannot remember what that afternoon was like. I'll post some differences tomorrow and how that looks, but maybe the only assessment to made can be done after the meet.
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Post by notebook on Nov 1, 2007 8:24:59 GMT -5
It would be to hard to figure out the conversion for AC. There were people there that didn't run as hard as they could.
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