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Post by xcrunner15 on Sept 13, 2007 19:53:50 GMT -5
Thread to discuss individuals and such. Oh, and predictions wise, i want accurate ones, not based on any factors like who may get hurt, or whos uncle might die the day before state so they cant run. I want precise, accurate rankings taking into account sectional sites, weather conditions, and who peaks early- those are the only outside factors i think we can predict for now.
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Post by slowrunner on Sept 13, 2007 19:56:37 GMT -5
did someone's uncle die before the state meet last year or something? what are u talking about
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Post by xcrunner15 on Sept 13, 2007 20:00:08 GMT -5
i was being sarcastic if u cant pick that up. i havent appreciated people taking outside factors that really have no affect or u cant predict- injuries, freak accidents, family deaths, ect.-unpredicatable stuff that i dont think should be accounted for in how we rank them
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Post by slowrunner on Sept 13, 2007 20:02:01 GMT -5
oh sorry. wow do i ever feel stupid! yea rankings should always be good and never be bad.
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Post by tommerbomber1 on Sept 13, 2007 21:51:32 GMT -5
I predict that Tim Hird's older brothers will both run into a large pit of venomous snakes while on a long run and be bitten multiple times before Josh Bailey (one of their teammates) rescues them and single-handedly carries them both to the hospital and cures them using his superpowers.
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Post by happyranker on Sept 13, 2007 21:54:09 GMT -5
I predict that Tim Hird's older brothers will both run into a large pit of venomous snakes while on a long run and be bitten multiple times before Josh Bailey (one of their teammates) rescues them and single-handedly carries them both to the hospital and cures them using his superpowers. i never heard that he did? wow i am impressed! by the way if you want rankings go to rankings by sectionals i updated mine not to long ago
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Post by xcrunner15 on Sept 16, 2007 11:07:54 GMT -5
wow with holmes putting up that super good time, he jumps from possible top 3, to deff number one, based on times alone. Id say so far it looks like:
1.Nick Holmes-Limestone 2.Derek Campbell-Sycamore 3.Tim Hird-Alleman 4.Peter Grimson-Sycamore 5.Blake Brooks-Dunlap
Although guys like Chris Frank, and other AA guys who ran on peoria this week may have run faster times then some of these guys, if everyone wouldve run on peoria this weekend together, id say youd see a drop in their times probably putting everyone 10-15 seconds faster putting Campbell around 15 flat, Hird around 15:05, Grimson around 15:20 and Brooks around 15:25 and thats at least, you never know with great weather conditions like Peoria had this weekend.
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Post by runninxc on Sept 16, 2007 13:33:36 GMT -5
not to mention competition. the peoria invite this weekend was stacked. at Woodruff all the leaders were kinda running alone, like chris derrick for instance was way out in front with nobody to run with, and campbell and hird from AA were kind of in the same position, both were kinda running alone with about 1.5 to go. so there's probably a few seconds there.
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Post by historian on Sept 16, 2007 15:11:11 GMT -5
Nick Holmes had a great race Saturday. Beating the three time AllStater was a tremendous achievement.
But...do not read tooooo much into the times. The weather this past weekend was undoubtedly the best for a Saturday at any time over the last seven years. No wind, cool, but not cold. Dry turf - just a perfect day for extremely fast times. My guess - a lot of the runners set PRs that might stand up for a long. long time.
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xxxc
Contributor
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Post by xxxc on Sept 17, 2007 7:26:46 GMT -5
We've seen the names of the top guys (Holmes, Campbell, etc.), now that we've got a few weeks of meets completed, who is in that next tier? Post some names of other AA guys who have gone 15:45ish or better (on at least 3 mi. courses).
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kcor
All-State
10%
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Post by kcor on Sept 17, 2007 8:51:05 GMT -5
Top 3 will all be from Peoria area Holmes Brooks McMorrow
Bank on it
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Post by xcnccben on Sept 17, 2007 10:16:16 GMT -5
We've seen the names of the top guys (Holmes, Campbell, etc.), now that we've got a few weeks of meets completed, who is in that next tier? Post some names of other AA guys who have gone 15:45ish or better (on at least 3 mi. courses). Scott Tanis of Yorkville put in a 15:42 at Minooka this past weekend.
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xxxc
Contributor
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Post by xxxc on Sept 17, 2007 10:29:50 GMT -5
Here's a start toward a top 15:
1. Holmes, Limestone 2. Campbell, Sycamore 3. Hird, R.I. Alleman 4. Brooks, Dunlap 5. Grimson, Sycamore 6. Anderson, Glenwood 7. McMorrow, Metamora 8. Walwer, Springfield 9. Frank, SHG 10. Osborne, Springfield 11. Lueken, Limestone 12. Gilmer, Sycamore 13. Tanis, Yorkville 14. McNight, St. Francis 15. Casey, Lemont
Let's see if we can get to 25.
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Post by oldskool on Sept 17, 2007 11:31:31 GMT -5
You guys are letting a number of individuals pass through the cracks and giving mediocre guys too much credit.
One such athlete is Kody Nelson, who was A last year but is AA this year. He ran 15:18 at detweiller last november to place 5th and was the only runner that race to run sub-5 his last mile.
He ran a conservative 16:11 at woodruff, in his first race since last april where he had to cut his track season short.
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Post by centralillinoisrun on Sept 17, 2007 12:29:57 GMT -5
also Kevin Forde from u high 15:05 ND invite
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xxxc
Contributor
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Post by xxxc on Sept 17, 2007 15:21:20 GMT -5
You guys are letting a number of individuals pass through the cracks and giving mediocre guys too much credit. One such athlete is Kody Nelson, who was A last year but is AA this year. He ran 15:18 at detweiller last november to place 5th and was the only runner that race to run sub-5 his last mile. He ran a conservative 16:11 at woodruff, in his first race since last april where he had to cut his track season short. Isn't he still A? And maybe some of the guys from my list are "mediocre", but that's what I wanted to get feedback on -- who else (AA) should be on the list.
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Post by dbandre on Sept 17, 2007 16:34:00 GMT -5
Stanford (Olympia) Regional (9T, 0I) Manager: Mike Lootens Phone: 309-379-5911 ext. 9012 Fax: 309-379-2583 E-mail: michael.lootens@olympia.org
Bloomington (Central Catholic) Clinton Decatur (Eisenhower) Decatur (St. Teresa) Delavan (Coop) Lincoln Mt. Zion Normal (University) Stanford (Olympia)
If you ask me, I think there will 2 or 3 individuals who are all-state capable in the new AA from this sectional. Forde, Nelson, and Curran. I will be able to tell you who has the better team between BCC and U-High come the Corn Belt Conference meet. Teamwise it might be the weakest regional.
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Post by centralillinoisrun on Sept 17, 2007 17:54:39 GMT -5
2-3??
Holmes Brooks McMorrow Forde Nelson Elward Just 6 to start with
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Post by dbandre on Sept 17, 2007 18:41:57 GMT -5
I meant the regional. The sectional overall has a fair amount of talent individual and team wise.
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Post by xcrunner15 on Sept 17, 2007 19:49:31 GMT -5
Predictions for top 25
1.Nick Holmes- Limestone-14:38- if stays healthy just too strong 2.Derek Campbell-sycamore-right up there but holmes just too strong 3.Tim Hird-Alleman 4.Neil Anderson-Chatham 5.Blake Brooks-dunlap 6.Peter Grimson-sycamore 7.T.J. McMorrow-metamora-always performs well at state 8.Chris Frank-sac. h. griffen 9.Kevin Forde-u high- dont know much about to justify ranking but 15:05 speaks for itself 10.Brad Walwer- springfield 11.Aaron Osborne-springfield-cutoff for sub 15 is my guess 12.Kyle Lueken-Limestone 13.Brian Mcguire-Alleman-will deffinetly surpise alot of people 14.Matthew Gilmer-sycamore 15.Garrett McKnight-St. Francis 16.Frank Puschautz-Northridge 17.John Curran-Bloom. C. Cath. 18.Scott Tanis-yorkville 19.Kasey Ferrigan-Dixon-super strong but unknown. 16:05 on a pure hills course, and will deff suprise 20.Darren Hooks-Highland 21.Marshall Moyer -Burlington 22.Matt Logan-Dixon 23.Josh Lodge-geneseo 24.Stefan Hueber-sycamore-probably higher, but based off of how hes gone this season. if he gets healthy, possibly top 15 25.Josh Lopez-alleman-15:43
Thats the best i can do with my limited resourse but deff, sycamore with 4 in the top 25 and their 5th around 30th win. Alleman, Chatham, sac. heart griffen fighting for number two, although alleman has 3 in top 25, 4 and 5 must improve, same for chatham's 2, and sac heart griffens 3, 4 and 5. After that, id say a throwup for top ten with yorkville, dixon, lemont, and springfield to namea few
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Post by dirtman on Sept 17, 2007 20:27:12 GMT -5
Pretty good list, xcrunner15! Only one comment -- I think Moyer from Burlington is from Burlington, Iowa.
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Post by xcrunner15 on Sept 17, 2007 20:33:40 GMT -5
d**n your right, my bad. I thought there was a burlington something in Illinois but i was quite sure. I shouldve remembered cause i remembered his teamate wasnt but whatever. let me think: I think it was an illiniana but i dont remember.
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Post by slowrunner on Sept 17, 2007 21:44:23 GMT -5
good rankings xcrunner15, maybe you can do teams also
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Post by airmail on Sept 18, 2007 11:18:10 GMT -5
xcrunner15 I like your ranking also.
Questions:
What is wrong with Hueber?
If he goes down, is Sycamore a 5 person team, or do they have a 6th and a 7th?
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Post by oldskool on Sept 18, 2007 13:28:11 GMT -5
I think it is very presumptuous to have 4 of Sycamore's runners in the top 25, especially when there is still debate as to whether or not they are far and away the top team in the state. Its just too early to tell team-wise, but regardless I completely disagree with having their top four runners finish all-state.
For example, York won with 60 points last year, 105 ahead of the second place team, and only had three in the top 25. Right now I don't see the winning team scoring that low. AA appears to be filled with a lot of teams with extremely strong 1 and 2 runners, but I don't see a ton of depth.
With that said, I doubt Limestone's #2 (Leuken) will garner all-state honors, and the same goes for many other individuals. He ran 15:40 in what might end up being the fastest race of the year, while there are at least 20 other kids running at that level right now (take Elward from Peoria ND, who hasn't even run a varsity race yet and still won the F/S at the ND invite in 15:26).
I hesitate to actually make a tangible prediction of my own seeing as the season is only 5 weeks old. Its like they say when picking fantasy football teams--you have to make your pick on numbers, not solely on reputation and potential. Anyone can guess what so and so will run, but I care about what they've done to date.
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xxxc
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Post by xxxc on Sept 18, 2007 21:27:03 GMT -5
I think it is very presumptuous to have 4 of Sycamore's runners in the top 25, especially when there is still debate as to whether or not they are far and away the top team in the state. Its just too early to tell team-wise, but regardless I completely disagree with having their top four runners finish all-state. For example, York won with 60 points last year, 105 ahead of the second place team, and only had three in the top 25. Right now I don't see the winning team scoring that low. AA appears to be filled with a lot of teams with extremely strong 1 and 2 runners, but I don't see a ton of depth. With that said, I doubt Limestone's #2 (Leuken) will garner all-state honors, and the same goes for many other individuals. He ran 15:40 in what might end up being the fastest race of the year, while there are at least 20 other kids running at that level right now (take Elward from Peoria ND, who hasn't even run a varsity race yet and still won the F/S at the ND invite in 15:26). I hesitate to actually make a tangible prediction of my own seeing as the season is only 5 weeks old. Its like they say when picking fantasy football teams--you have to make your pick on numbers, not solely on reputation and potential. Anyone can guess what so and so will run, but I care about what they've done to date. Geez, oldskool, people are just trying to have some fun talking about the great sport of cross country. If you don't want to talk about what's happened so far this season and maybe even do some speculating, what do you suggest? That we just reminisce about York's 105 point victory from last year? The high school competitive season lasts just over two months, so let's enjoy it while it lasts. I know in an earlier blog that I was just trying to find out who's run some top times thus far and maybe give some kids a little recognition in the process. You responded by calling many of them mediocre and now, in your latest comment, you diss Limestone's #2 runner. Sorry we bothered you.
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Post by oldskool on Sept 18, 2007 22:29:14 GMT -5
Geez, lighten up! You can't debate or discuss anything without having an opposing view, so I apologize you took my ideas personally. They certainly weren't intended to make anyone feel bad, and I do enjoy the rankings. Are you suggesting that my thoughts on Sycamore being slightly overrated aren't worthy of discussion? Blake Brooks is currently ranked as the 5th individual by xcrunner15, but nobody has brought up the fact he was beaten by both #1 and #2 from Delavan on his home course last Saturday at the Dunlap Invite. I think things like that shake up rankings and make it exciting. Will he or won't he live up to his early-season billing? I was hoping someone would shove my statements back in my face, but I must be too intimidating
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xxxc
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Post by xxxc on Sept 19, 2007 7:08:07 GMT -5
Geez, lighten up! You can't debate or discuss anything without having an opposing view, so I apologize you took my ideas personally. They certainly weren't intended to make anyone feel bad, and I do enjoy the rankings. Are you suggesting that my thoughts on Sycamore being slightly overrated aren't worthy of discussion? Blake Brooks is currently ranked as the 5th individual by xcrunner15, but nobody has brought up the fact he was beaten by both #1 and #2 from Delavan on his home course last Saturday at the Dunlap Invite. I think things like that shake up rankings and make it exciting. Will he or won't he live up to his early-season billing? I was hoping someone would shove my statements back in my face, but I must be too intimidating I apologize back at you. And I don't mean to suggest your thoughts are not worthy of discussion. Going back to xcrunner15's list of 25, I was appreciative of his efforts and from there I was looking for people to throw more names into the discussion. I just thought you seemed determined to throw runners out of the discussion without adding any replacements (K.Nelson aside). I do appreciate your comments about the Delavan runners, but let us know their names and times (do I assume that one of them is Nelson?). I don't have alot of time to research the top runners in AA, but I enjoy hearing about them and who may be having breakthrough seasons. As for your comment about Sycamore's top 4 runners, I certainly hope they're not all top 25 runners 'cause if they are, the race for state is over!
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Post by we_love_hills on Sept 19, 2007 7:41:21 GMT -5
A runner to keep an eye on is Jon Richards from Streator--they're still AA not AAA. He runs on a very poor team but has consistently gotten better. I know he ran right up with the Yorkville runners at the beginning of the season @ the Seneca Twilight race, and finished 8th @ in Woodruff Invite with a 16:01.
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Post by xcrunner30 on Sept 19, 2007 18:03:09 GMT -5
Predictions for top 25 1.Nick Holmes- Limestone-14:38- if stays healthy just too strong 2.Derek Campbell-sycamore-right up there but holmes just too strong 3.Tim Hird-Alleman 4.Neil Anderson-Chatham 5.Blake Brooks-dunlap 6.Peter Grimson-sycamore 7.T.J. McMorrow-metamora-always performs well at state 8.Chris Frank-sac. h. griffen 9.Kevin Forde-u high- dont know much about to justify ranking but 15:05 speaks for itself 10.Brad Walwer- springfield 11.Aaron Osborne-springfield-cutoff for sub 15 is my guess 12.Kyle Lueken-Limestone 13.Brian Mcguire-Alleman-will deffinetly surpise alot of people 14.Matthew Gilmer-sycamore 15.Garrett McKnight-St. Francis 16.Frank Puschautz-Northridge 17.John Curran-Bloom. C. Cath. 18.Scott Tanis-yorkville 19.Kasey Ferrigan-Dixon-super strong but unknown. 16:05 on a pure hills course, and will deff suprise 20.Darren Hooks-Highland 21.Marshall Moyer -Burlington 22.Matt Logan-Dixon 23.Josh Lodge-geneseo 24.Stefan Hueber-sycamore-probably higher, but based off of how hes gone this season. if he gets healthy, possibly top 15 25.Josh Lopez-alleman-15:43 Thats the best i can do with my limited resourse but deff, sycamore with 4 in the top 25 and their 5th around 30th win. Alleman, Chatham, sac. heart griffen fighting for number two, although alleman has 3 in top 25, 4 and 5 must improve, same for chatham's 2, and sac heart griffens 3, 4 and 5. After that, id say a throwup for top ten with yorkville, dixon, lemont, and springfield to namea few I took the liberty of finding out who is at what age for these rankings. I bolded the Juniors so we can see who will be back next year. 1.Senior 2.Senior 3.Junior4.Senior 5.Senior 6.Senior 7.Senior 8.Senior 9.Senior 10.Junior11.Senior 12.Senior 13.Senior 14.Junior15.Senior 16.Senior 17.Junior18.Senior 19.Junior20.Senior 21. (Iowa) 22.Junior 23.Junior24.Senior 25.Senior
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