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Post by centralillinoisrun on Sept 19, 2007 9:13:58 GMT -5
Who are the teams going to state out of this sectional? Boys and Girls.
My guess: Boys
Metamora Limestone Galesburg Delavan Normal U high
close/ maybe Richwoods Notre Dame- Peoria Dunlap BCC
Girls: East Peoria Mahomet Normal U high Notre Dame- Peoria Limestone
close/ maybe BCC Dunlap Metamora
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Post by oldskool on Sept 19, 2007 19:36:49 GMT -5
I think your prediction is fairly accurate on both the guys and girls side. To be fair I'm more familiar with the men's team race than the women's, but I'd still agree with you.
The top two guys teams are a lock (metamora, limestone) barring any unforeseen injury or eligibility problems, and I do think Delavan and Galesburg will battle for the 3rd or 4th spot.
Who does anyone think the top individuals are?
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Post by slowrunner on Sept 19, 2007 19:43:38 GMT -5
well i think it is clear holmes will win it
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Post by preFANtaine on Sept 19, 2007 19:52:43 GMT -5
Girls: 1. Comfort (PND) 2. Benson (L) 3. Gustafson (EP) 4. Kelly Curran (Bloomington Central Catholic) 5. Lohmeier (EP) 6. Clawson (Mahoment-Seymour) *If healthy 7. McBrayer (EP) 8. Emily Clay (U-High) * Freshman 9. Dahlquist (PND) * Freshman 10. Mahomet-Seymour - Schaap, Bohn * Freshman, Jarrett
* If these freshman can handle the rigors of another 6 1/2 weeks of High School XC, they should challenge for the 6-10 places at Sectional. Top 5 on this list are very sound.
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Post by xcrunner15 on Sept 19, 2007 20:04:02 GMT -5
Individuals (healthy, ect.)
1.Nick Holmes 2.Blake Brooks 3.T.J. Mcmorrow 4.Kody Nelson 5.Kevin Forde
Also, this list is how I think they'll do at sectionals, NOT STATE! If you notice, some are ranked much higher or lower at state, because I think certain people will run faster or slower based on the race. Brooks for example I think runs better in less crowded races, and gains confidence by being up near the front. Forde I just dont think will race well, or all the others will race faster, but he will deff. bounce back for state.
I know Fordes run faster times the everyone but holmes!! but that was on possibly the fastest race of the year, plus with tons of other people to run with. I think come sectional time, holmes will break away, and these four will pack and it will come down to a kick. and you have to like brooks 4:15 speed on a kick like this.
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Post by oldskool on Sept 19, 2007 21:50:37 GMT -5
I apologize, I was unclear when I said "individuals" but I was referring to the women's race specifically. Comfort is a given, but I had a brain fart.
I'm also curious to hear if anyone knows more about Brooks and his illness he's been dealing with. Missing some training could hurt in the long-term depending on how long he is below 100%. I wish him well, but he hasn't really performed to his best at state in both track and xc and I wonder if time missed will play a factor as time goes on.
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Post by centralillinoisrun on Sept 25, 2007 8:24:34 GMT -5
After another week gone by, I believe thing have changed some. The East Peoria meet gave us some insight to a couple of things:
1. With out Nick Holmes Limestone is very poor. How long is Nick out for? I over heard that it maybe quite awhile. 2. Richwoods and Galesburg are both not as good as thought before. 3. East Peoria is pretty good and getting better. 4. Normal U High is going to state.
Metamora U High Delavan- Great meet down south somewhere, with front runners like they have...maybe even higher. Limestone East Peoria- With Tim Broe anything is possible.
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Post by uhxcrnnr on Sept 25, 2007 9:35:57 GMT -5
i run for normal u-high and although we placed fairly well as a team we honestly didn't run very well individually. Our pack needed to be tighter from the start and our2-6 split should have been tighter
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Post by cyron10k on Sept 25, 2007 14:37:15 GMT -5
After another week gone by, I believe thing have changed some. The East Peoria meet gave us some insight to a couple of things: 1. With out Nick Holmes Limestone is very poor. How long is Nick out for? I over heard that it maybe quite awhile. Limestone didn't run runners 1-4 at East Peoria. Keep the crazy rumors coming. They make me laugh. Somebody better tell Nick he is "out."
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Post by runningnerd on Sept 25, 2007 21:17:08 GMT -5
indeed
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Post by 800man on Sept 26, 2007 8:04:02 GMT -5
Who are the teams going to state out of this sectional? Boys and Girls. My guess: Boys Metamora Limestone Galesburg Delavan Normal U high close/ maybe Richwoods Notre Dame- Peoria Dunlap BCC Girls: East Peoria Mahomet Normal U high Notre Dame- Peoria Limestone close/ maybe BCC Dunlap Metamora Peoria Notre Dame While you have them listed as close I think are probably the 3rd or 4th best team inthat sectional. They have a real strong runner who won the PND soph race easily and another frosh or soph that may also be in their top 5. If Limestone is healthy, they should win this sectional.
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Post by centralillinoisrun on Sept 26, 2007 8:55:54 GMT -5
cyron10k- why didn't "Nick" race at EP? Or the rest of their top 4 for that matter.
After looking at bit closer I have changed my mind once again. Metamora- too deep, too fast to be beat by anyone in the sectional. top 5 team in the state. Delavan- Again front runners and very solid though 4. U high- Solid pack. Battling to making it out will be: Peoria Notre Dame Limestone Dunlap Galesburg
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Post by 800man on Sept 26, 2007 9:18:08 GMT -5
cyron10k- why didn't "Nick" race at EP? Or the rest of their top 4 for that matter. After looking at bit closer I have changed my mind once again. Metamora- too deep, too fast to be beat by anyone in the sectional. top 5 team in the state. Delavan- Again front runners and very solid though 4. U high- Solid pack. Battling to making it out will be: Peoria Notre Dame Limestone Dunlap Galesburg I'll take another look at Metamora. TJ is leading them well, and their 2-6 split is at about a minute, they probably could win thier sectional. Top 5 in state though, I'm still looking at a couple of those Springfield schools for trophys amd then you have several teams out of the loaded Belvidere sectional..
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Post by xctiger07 on Sept 26, 2007 12:19:49 GMT -5
Limestone ran both boys and girls varsity at Peoria Notre Dame and ran their JV squads at East Peoria.
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Post by cygnus on Sept 27, 2007 14:24:31 GMT -5
I have some bias, I'm a Richwoods alum. That said, I think Richwoods has a decent chance in this sectional. Here's why.
9/1 Galeburg Invite With a full team Richwoods beat Galesburg, Dunlap, and Metamora and took 2nd overall. (Metamora took 10th?? Must have been missing someone or running JV.)
9/5 Tri-meet Richwoods beat Peoria Notre Dame in a tri-meet.
9/8 Woodruff Invite 3. Metamora 6. U High 7. Galesburg 9. Dunlap 10. Richwoods Here we struggled. We were however missing one of our top finishers (DeDecker).
9/18 Dunlap Invite Richwoods ties for 2nd with Dunlap with two key guys missing due to sickness.
9/22 East Peoria Invite Richwoods beat Galesburg and Limestone, despite missing two of our top 5 guys.
There's been some inconsistency, sure, but I think a top 5 spot is certainly within reach for Richwoods and they belong in the conversation.
Cygnus
(Edited to include Woodruff Invite)
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Post by 800man on Sept 27, 2007 14:41:07 GMT -5
I have some bias, I'm a Richwoods alum. That said, I think Richwoods has a decent chance in this sectional. Here's why. 9/1 Galeburg Invite With a full team Richwoods beat Galesburg, Dunlap, and Metamora and took 2nd overall. (Metamora took 10th?? Must have been missing someone.) 9/5 Tri-meet Richwoods beat Peoria Notre Dame in a tri-meet. 9/18 Dunlap Invite Richwoods ties for 2nd with Dunlap with two key guys missing due to sickness. 9/22 East Peoria Invite Richwoods beat Galesburg and Limestone, despite missing two of our top 5 guys. There's been some inconsistency, sure, but I think a top 5 spot is certainly within reach for Richwoods and they belong in the conversation. Cygnus All good points Cygnus. The problem I have seen in trying to analyze some of this teams is they don't always run at full strength or they have some strong underclassmen who weren't factored into a varsity scenario. PND for example, at the PND meet the overall Frosh/Soph winner was from PND in around 15:30 I think. He would have been their number 1 varsity runner and cut off a huge amount of points from their score. If he's not factored in they don't look to good. But factor him in and all of a sudden they could be in the hunt.
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Post by cyron10k on Sept 27, 2007 14:51:08 GMT -5
9/22 East Peoria Invite Richwoods beat Galesburg and Limestone, despite missing two of our top 5 guys. Again, Limestone sat 1-4 runners at EP invite.
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Post by cygnus on Sept 27, 2007 14:57:15 GMT -5
9/22 East Peoria Invite Richwoods beat Galesburg and Limestone, despite missing two of our top 5 guys. Again, Limestone sat 1-4 runners at EP invite. Thanks cyron, I had forgotten you posted that earlier in the thread. I'm not trying to claim Richwoods is better than the teams I listed. Just saying I think we're in the hunt more than some think.
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Post by cyron10k on Sept 27, 2007 15:16:38 GMT -5
yeah, I'm not really sure who will do what. Every time I think I get those teams figured out I see new results and end up even more confused. I like many others choose to follow one team more closely than the others. It will be interesting to see how it all ends up. Exciting for sure.
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Post by oldschool on Sept 27, 2007 16:59:11 GMT -5
NM
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Post by dbandre on Sept 27, 2007 17:25:44 GMT -5
I hope no one forgets about Delavan in this sectional like they did in the IPTT rankings.
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Post by cygnus on Oct 2, 2007 10:29:56 GMT -5
After this weekend (Sept. 30) I am more inclined to think:
Metamora Delavan U High Limestone (great showing at Jacksonville Invite) Peoria Notre Dame
Galesburg Richwoods Dunlap
I still hold out hope for Richwoods, but it's going to be a bloodfest for that No. 5 spot. Limestone and PND made big statements this weekend that they will be in the top 5 come sectional time.
Limestone could be much higher - hard to tell since they they don't always run their top guys at invites.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 24, 2007 21:00:37 GMT -5
From review and adjustment of regional results. please discuss, the race has to be ran. A couple of things could skew these results, like McMorrow running or Olympia's #5 running and some mid pack guys that may have sandbagged a little more than necessary. For 11 teams to be separated by 102 points from 4th to 14th suggests that could be a real tight race for the last 2 team spots.
1 82 UH 2 114 GALES 3 115 DEL 4 184 PND 5 185 LIME 6 222 BM 7 224 MS 8 239 EP 9 257 MET 10 258 BCC 11 260 CC 12 282 RICH 13 285 DUN 14 286 OLY 15 377 WOOD 16 383 CENTRAL (Champaign) 17 412 RANT 18 434 MORT 19 465 RC (Reed Custer) 20 489 DE
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Post by illinijeff on Oct 25, 2007 9:58:53 GMT -5
Regional results don't mean a thing.
Metamora will win this one going away.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 25, 2007 10:01:25 GMT -5
lol, ok...
How?
How is Metamora going to best Normal U-High? You can take 90-100 points off their score if McMorrow runs, but I don't see them having anymore than 2 in with the top 4 of U-High and Delavan, both of those teams should have 4 runs in top 25 with Galesburg having 3 in the top 25. This race is full of 16:30 runners.
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Post by oldskool on Oct 25, 2007 11:26:50 GMT -5
I agree with dbandre, U-High is the class of this sectional right now. Forde is running strong in the stretch, while T.J. is struggling with an injury. This isn't intended to take anything away from McMorrow, but nobody can argue that he hasn't been coming on very strong lately with missing his home invite and not running regionals. Regardless of his talent, now isn't the time to be less than 100%.
Do I think metamora will advance? Absolutely, barring some unforeseen tragedy. Also, can someone clarify if another of metamora's top 5 didn't run regionals, or did he drop out of the race? Limestone appears to be in some trouble according to some I spoke with who were at the galesburg race. The faces of the 3-5 guys said it all, and their coach seemed none too pleased with the result as evidenced by the tone and language used.
Not sure what to think about galesburg yet. They'll likely qualify though in the 5th spot. I'm going to be conservative and put Delavan at 4th and give PND a great day. My guesstimate (and that is ALL this is) is as follows:
1. U-High 2. Metamora 3. PND 4. Delavan 5. Galesburg
Out of the running:
6. Limestone 7. EP 8. BM 9. Dunlap
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Post by illinijeff on Oct 25, 2007 11:47:01 GMT -5
Metamora's #2/3 runner Ryan VanFossen stopped in mid-race at regionals. He was also nursing a slight injury.
I'm pretty sure they'll be at full strength Saturday for the first time all season. Even with a recovering TJ they will tough to beat. I'm looking forward to a great race.
I'll even go out on a limb and predict a much closer state meet if the Redbirds can stay healthy. Sycamore will have their hands full if Metamora runs to their potential in the biggest meet of the year.
I can guarentee that they are still focused on the state meet and not winning Sectionals so we'll have to wait and see.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 25, 2007 12:00:16 GMT -5
I like Metamora and I like their coach, but my predictions are not biased in anyway. If McMorrow and Van Fossen run Metamora will have a better chance to make it out, but adrenaline and injuries are funny things, but for Metamora to be Sectional champs with McMorrow and Van Fossen running, they'll need 3 more runners who can run 16:30 on an average 3 mile course and I don't see it.
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Post by cyron10k on Oct 25, 2007 15:15:18 GMT -5
1. Metamora 3 5 7 8 12 (16) (32) = 35 McMorrow, Shoopman, Van Fossen, Rauh, Anderson, Kamm, Klassing 2. Limestone 1 9 10 14 18 (24) (28) = 52 Holmes, Lueken, Williams, Barber, Swanson, Stear, McKinney
1 Nick Holmes Limestone 14:29.02 2 Blake Brooks Dunlap 15:00.42 3 Tj McMorrow Metamora 15:41.95 4 Joe Wegner Pekin 15:44.26 5 Cory Shoopman Metamora 15:44.62 6 Shane Leiby East Peoria 15:45.84 7 Ryan Van Fossen Metamora 15:52.69 8 Stephan Rauh Metamora 15:56.12 9 Kyle Lueken Limestone 16:03.28 10 Brock Williams Limestone 16:03.83 11 Nick Leiby East Peoria 16:09.22 12 Chase Anderson Metamora 16:13.66 13 Hugh Gill East Peoria 16:15.22 14 Joe Barber Limestone 16:19.19 15 Steve Bettenhausen Dunlap 16:19.83 16 Kevin Kamm Metamora 16:21.13 17 Johnny Crain Dunlap 16:21.81 18 Sean Swanson Limestone 16:22.18
Here was the difference in time between Metamora's 5 and Limestone's 5. 9 seconsds. At Conference (raced on Detweiler), Nick was first in 14:29 while TJ was third with 15:41. If that happens at sectionals, TJ will be scoring more than 3 points because there will be more finishers in the 1:14 gap between Holmes and TJ, which quickly pushes the score closer together. I realize that Metamora put 5 ahead of Limestone's 4 and 4 ahead of their 2 but the time's were very close. Limestone looked off last week, Metamora was banged up. You be the judge
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Post by illinijeff on Oct 25, 2007 16:11:30 GMT -5
"they'll need 3 more runners who can run 16:30 on an average 3 mile course and I don't see it." See above for six runners under 16:30 and they were still missing a top 5 runner.
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