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Post by xcrunner4life on Oct 24, 2007 21:10:11 GMT -5
what are your thought on IPTT's rankings and what are your own thoughs or predictions about the upcoming State Meet
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Post by xcrunner30 on Oct 24, 2007 21:53:45 GMT -5
I'll go ahead and say that Sycamore is clear team favorite and it looks to be a good race between Holmes, Hird and Campbell for individual with Holmes being favorite.
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Post by badkarma96 on Oct 26, 2007 20:34:02 GMT -5
I'm guessing that Holmes is going to run away with it and there is going to be a good race for second place. Just like in the team standings.
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Post by uhxcrnnr on Oct 28, 2007 1:51:13 GMT -5
I compiled all of the sectional results except for those from Belvidere as I couldn't find any individual results. I'll add in those results once they become available.
Rank School Score 1 Normal U-High 125 2 Metamora 131 3 Springfield High 131 4 Illiana Christian 140 5 Galesburg 160 6 Chatham Glenwood 161 7 Delevan 186 8 Wheaton (St. Francis) 203 9 Bartonville Limestone 219 10 Niles (Northridge Prep) 248 11 Chicago University 252 12 Lemont 255 13 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 257 14 Springfield S.H.G 308 15 Breese (Mater Dei) 323 16 Troy Triad 329 17 18 19 20 21
1 Nick Holmes 15:01.8 Bartonville Limestone 2 Kevin Forde 15:24.0 Normal U-High 3 Nick Kramer 15:30.0 Illiana Christian 4 Garret McKnight 15:32.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 5 Phil Diamond 15:36.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 6 Jordan Piaskowy 15:37.0 Illiana Christian 7 Neal Anderson 15:41.0 Chatham Glenwood 8 Aaron Osborne 15:47.0 Springfield High 9 Spencer Guerrero 15:49.3 Galesburg 10 Philip Verma 15:50.0 Chicago University 11 Mark Phillips 15:50.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 12 Kody Nelson 15:52.8 Delevan 13 James Clay 15:53.8 Normal U-High 14 Neal Casey 15:59.0 Lemont 15 Brock Williams 16:01.0 Bartonville Limestone 16 TJ McMorrow 16:06.4 Metamora 17 Frank Puschautz 16:08.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 18 Stephen Rauh 16:08.8 Metamora 19 Cory Shoopman 16:11.6 Metamora 20 Jeff Camp 16:13.5 Delevan 21 Brad Walwer 16:14.0 Springfield High 22 Gabe Moreno 16:15.9 Galesburg 23 Caleb Schmal 16:17.0 Illiana Christian 24 Will Cross 16:19.3 Delevan 25 Justin Lee 16:20.0 Springfield High 26 Ethan Jefferies 16:20.0 Delevan 27 Kyle Lueken 16:22.4 Bartonville Limestone 28 Quincy Guerrero 16:22.6 Galesburg 29 Kirk Saunders 16:23.5 Normal U-High 30 Danny McMahon 16:24.0 Springfield S.H.G 31 Taiyo Wilson 16:24.1 Normal U-High 32 Kevin Kamm 16:26.1 Metamora 33 Tom Hoster 16:27.0 Lemont 34 Jonathon Worcester 16:28.0 Chicago University 35 Mike DeRenzo 16:28.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 36 Brett Conway 16:28.0 Troy Triad 37 Greg Staley 16:29.0 Chatham Glenwood 38 Patrick Walsh 16:31.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 39 Austin Meeker 16:32.4 Galesburg 40 Adam Aydt 16:34.0 Chatham Glenwood 41 Chris Frank 16:34.0 Springfield S.H.G 42 Matt Harvey 16:35.0 Springfield High 43 Austin Warner 16:36.0 Illiana Christian 44 Brian Dixon 16:37.0 Chatham Glenwood 45 Blake Ofstedal 16:39.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 46 Ryan Van Fossen 16:41.7 Metamora 47 Justin Betz 16:44.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 48 Jarus Singh 16:47.0 Chicago University 49 Peter Heidlauf 16:47.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 50 Ryan Rutherford 16:47.1 Normal U-High 51 Connor Brown 16:48.0 Springfield High 52 Josiah Husk 16:48.5 Normal U-High 53 Adam Buskirk 16:49.0 Troy Triad 54 Connor Brown 16:50.8 Normal U-High 55 Ryan Strauss 16:52.0 Lemont 56 Taylor Beckmann 16:52.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 57 Greg Whittle 16:53.6 Galesburg 58 Tyler Pence 16:54.0 Springfield High 59 Dillion Murray 16:56.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 60 George Holohan 16:56.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 61 Max Wagner 16:58.0 Chicago University 62 Kent Smith 16:58.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 63 Lucas Junik 16:58.7 Galesburg 64 Joe Giamberdino 16:59.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 65 Tom Vankley 17:00.0 Illiana Christian 66 Chris Sullivan 17:02.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 67 Trent Ross 17:02.0 Troy Triad 68 DJ White 17:05.0 Illiana Christian 69 Colten Strotheide 17:07.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 70 Brian McMahon 17:09.0 Springfield S.H.G 71 Justin Stear 17:09.9 Bartonville Limestone 72 Lee Koepke 17:10.0 Lemont 73 Matt Dougherty 17:11.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 74 Pat Gray 17:12.0 Chatham Glenwood 75 Alex Henrichs 17:14.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 76 Matt Fudala 17:15.0 Lemont 77 Sean Ryan 17:15.0 Springfield S.H.G 78 Jon Carrigan 17:16.0 Chatham Glenwood 79 Ryan Donnelly 17:16.3 Metamora 80 Kyle McKenna 17:17.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 81 Peter Knapp 17:17.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 82 Nathan Armes 17:17.0 Troy Triad 83 Matt McKinney 17:19.1 Bartonville Limestone 84 Justin Impema 17:22.0 Illiana Christian 85 Patrick Ryan 17:23.0 Springfield S.H.G 86 Kyle Reed 17:23.0 Troy Triad 87 Ryan Anderson 17:24.0 Chatham Glenwood 88 Brandon Stewart 17:25.0 Springfield High 89 Joe Barber 17:27.3 Bartonville Limestone 90 Daniel Boubet 17:29.9 Galesburg 91 John Antonacci 17:32.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 92 Chase Anderson 17:32.2 Metamora 93 Joe Germanos 17:33.0 Wheaton (St. Francis) 94 Don Traubert 17:33.0 Chicago University 95 Shai Weinstein 17:33.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 96 Ben Buchheim-Jurisson 17:36.0 Chicago University 97 Matt DeRenzo 17:36.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 98 Sean Swanson 17:38.9 Bartonville Limestone 99 Larry Lymangrover 17:39.6 Delevan 100 Connor Fanning 17:44.0 Springfield S.H.G 101 Conor Schickel 17:45.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 102 Matt Badyna 17:47.0 Niles (Northridge Prep) 103 Robert Meyer 17:52.0 Chicago University 104 Ben Euler 17:52.0 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 105 Michael Ralph 18:00.0 Springfield S.H.G 106 Kevin Burke 18:01.0 Lemont 107 Aaron Buskirk 18:06.0 Troy Triad 108 Ethan Wood 18:11.0 Lemont 109 Brian Hoormann 18:33.0 Troy Triad 110 Andy Sudholt 19:02.0 Breese (Mater Dei) 111 Austin Dowds 20:05.4 Delevan
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bcxc
New Member
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Post by bcxc on Oct 28, 2007 8:53:42 GMT -5
just to let you know, uhxcrnnr the results for the jones sectional were screwed up, they posted u-high's and wheaton's times and places as the same, so your predictions might be a little off. Their points were the same but their times were different. I believe wheaton's times were right. As posted on their website, uh's times were:
Philip Verma 16:14 Jon Worcester 16:46 Jarus Singh 16:53 Max Wagner 16:54 Don Traubert 17:19 Ben Buchheim-Jurrison 17:20 Kevin Brunke (R meyer was hurt) 17:54
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Post by LemontXC17 on Oct 28, 2007 10:50:58 GMT -5
uhxcrnnr the Peoria Notre Dame and Belvidere sectionals were both a little short. you would need to add some time on tho those runners times in order to have closer comparisons.
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Post by uhxcrnnr on Oct 28, 2007 11:59:51 GMT -5
i don't have results from belvidere so I'm not worrying about that conversion yet but for the Peoria Notre Dame course i don't think you really need to make a conversion. The course runs time-wise like a full three mile due to a large hill which runners go up twice and especially with the 2" of rain the previous night the course was complete muck with runners slipping everywhere. bxcx, I've adjusted those times and will get the "results" reposted once i tally up the team scores.
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Post by run4fun33 on Oct 28, 2007 14:44:35 GMT -5
i don't have results from belvidere so I'm not worrying about that conversion yet but for the Peoria Notre Dame course i don't think you really need to make a conversion. The course runs time-wise like a full three mile due to a large hill which runners go up twice and especially with the 2" of rain the previous night the course was complete muck with runners slipping everywhere. bxcx, I've adjusted those times and will get the "results" reposted once i tally up the team scores. Well the Centralia course was pretty sloppy to and times were definetly slower than usual, it ran heavily for a the days leading up to the race so your predictions will still be a bit off.
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Post by qcyrunner on Oct 28, 2007 18:15:40 GMT -5
It wasn't as bad this year at Centralia as it was last year. There were excellent races yesterday. The only sloppy areas were the muddy trails. It will be interesting to see the showdown between SHG and EP on the girls side. Are there any other true contenders to watch for on the girls side?
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Post by dbandre on Oct 28, 2007 21:15:28 GMT -5
To Lemont:
Actually, the ICC course although short needs a small adjustment to Detweiler, maybe take off 15-20s off the time ran.
If you are going to make adjustments, use a reference course. In this case Detweiler. Generally you can get those adjustments from an average of previous years sectionals on the same course to what the same kids ran at state on detweiler. Otherwise you have to use a 2 or 3 deep calculation using regional and conference courses and do some regression that way to adjust times. Be mindful of conditions, sometimes a sloppy wet course that is undulating can affect times from year to year as opposed to wet courses, but kids in proper spikes usually keep that time differential minimal.
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Post by dirtman on Oct 28, 2007 21:58:26 GMT -5
I combined the results from each of the Sectionals (I was at the Belvidere Sectional so I got results there). I took the Centralia and Chicago Sectional times as is, but upped the times for the other two based on the IHSA posted distance of 2.94 for Peoria ND and 2.92 for Belvidere (as shown on their Sectional results). This is what I got:
1. Sycamore 81 2. Illiana Christian 171 3. Belvidere No. 172 4. Springfield 187 5. Crystal Lake Central 193 6. Yorkville 207 7. Dixon 229 8. Glenwood Chatham 246 9. Normal 251 10. St. Francis 251 11. Metamora 274 12. Galesburg 288 13. Northridge Prep 309 14. University 318 15. Lemont 319 16. Delavan 320 17. Limestone 326 18. Triad 376 19. SHG 381 20. Breese MD 407
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Post by oldskool on Oct 28, 2007 22:12:39 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, how much did you add to the ND times? I don't really think they need to be adjusted thanks to nasty course conditions. 2 inches of rain before the race took care of that (ask Forde who was the first guy to go down).
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Post by xcrunner30 on Oct 28, 2007 22:22:01 GMT -5
Wow, great job dirtman.
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Post by dirtman on Oct 29, 2007 9:25:28 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, how much did you add to the ND times? I don't really think they need to be adjusted thanks to nasty course conditions. 2 inches of rain before the race took care of that (ask Forde who was the first guy to go down). As I mentioned earlier, I upped the Peoria ND times to equate to a 3.0 mile course. This is a change of just over 2% or in terms of time it's about 20 seconds (in the specific example of Kevin Forde, I converted his 15:23.67 to 15:43). As for making no adjustment as you suggest due to bad conditions, I looked at Normal University's times (as an example) from the prior week. They were at the Stanford Olympian Regional which is listed as a 3.0 course per the IHSA site. For 5 of their 6 runners who ran both weeks, they were faster at the shorter Sectional course despite the conditions, and their top 3 (Forde, Clay, Saunders) were a combined 53 seconds faster. Maybe their training accounted for some of the improvement, but I still think at least some adjustment is needed. But if you are right in that no adjustment is warranted, then my results change dramatically -- Normal University and Metamora jump all the way to 2nd and 3rd, respectively. All we can do now is speculate, but in 5 days we'll know!
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Post by doctorwu on Oct 29, 2007 10:24:22 GMT -5
Is anyone doing the individuals with the Belvidere Sectional. I would do it, but I am not an expert on the adjustments. All I know is that the Belvidere sectional will certainly change the individual similar to the way Dirtman's ranking changed the above results. Great Job Dirtman
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 11:02:26 GMT -5
Considering I know the Detweiler, ICC, and Stanford Olympia courses here's how they rate.
ICC and Olympia courses are 2 of the slowest courses in Central Illinois. At the Olympia regional the Top 10 consisted of 5 U-High, 4 Delavan, and 1 Bloomington Central Catholic runners. Of course they ran faster at ICC, because they had compete against more than 1 team and I think Normal U-High had an off day with the exception of Forde and Clay. Clay has been their 3rd or 4th all year and he's now their 2nd.
Nick Holmes will not run 15:01 at Detweiler he will run 14:40 or better, Kevin Forde will not run 15:24 either. Trust me the conversion will be at least 20s taken off their sectional times to Detweiler.
NEVER make adjustments in time, based upon distance when comparing across courses. The adjustment has to be made with a reference course in mind. Take last years results from the East Peoria sectional run at ICC you'll find that most runners took 25-30s off their sectional times. The most notable not to was Nick Holmes, but the trend is there year in and year out for you to take off time this time from each runner NOT ADD TO IT. In fact you should do this with all sectionals and look at the trend they all have to get a better picture. Not just slap in times or arbitrary adjustments.
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Post by illinijeff on Oct 29, 2007 11:13:28 GMT -5
I agree 100% dbandre. There is no way any time should ever be added to the ICC course. Times there are always slower and especially with the soggy course counditions.
U-High and Metamora (Oh........ for two points!) will no doubt be in the upper tier next weekend to challenge Sycamore.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 11:59:58 GMT -5
CONVERSIONS TO DETWEILER:
ICC: -25s CENTRALIA: -45s NILES WEST: -40s BELVIDERE: -5s
BELVIDERE may be listed as 2.9 or 2.92 but runs about the same as Detweiler time wise. 2 years ago kids ran about 20-25s slower on ICC coming from BELVIDERE.
You take that many seconds off each runner and you will get a totally different set of results. I'll go on record right now without doing the conversions and say that the PND sectional will have 4 top ten teams.
Now look at the team results from the teams you listed earlier with these conversions
118 Springfield High 127 Illiana Christian 163 Chatham Glenwood 169 Metamora 171 Normal U-High 185 Wheaton (St. Francis) 208 Galesburg 221 Delevan 227 Niles (Northridge Prep) 233 Chicago University 235 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 237 Bartonville Limestone 241 Lemont 272 Springfield S.H.G 284 Troy Triad 290 Breese (Mater Dei)
When the Belvidere results are finalized with correct times I will estimate what really is going to happen.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 12:28:34 GMT -5
Is anyone doing the individuals with the Belvidere Sectional. I would do it, but I am not an expert on the adjustments. All I know is that the Belvidere sectional will certainly change the individual similar to the way Dirtman's ranking changed the above results. Great Job Dirtman Give me the results of the sectional and I'll take 5s off the times and do the scoring, then I might also run 500 or 600 simulation runs. To figure out the average team placings.
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rt20
All-State
Posts: 207
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Post by rt20 on Oct 29, 2007 13:49:26 GMT -5
BELVIDERE may be listed as 2.9 or 2.92 but runs about the same as Detweiler time wise. 2 years ago kids ran about 20-25s slower on ICC coming from BELVIDERE. Two years ago the course was run at Spencer Park. Wasn't it run at the Belvidere high school this year?
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 14:09:57 GMT -5
Thanks rt, i need as much info as possible to give anything close to reliable predictions.
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Post by irun11 on Oct 29, 2007 14:56:48 GMT -5
CONVERSIONS TO DETWEILER: ICC: -25s CENTRALIA: -45s NILES WEST: -40s BELVIDERE: -5s what do you mean by these, are they that much slower than detweiller, i dont understand. because i know niles west times are usually 10 seconds slower than those at detweiller
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 15:01:06 GMT -5
I think you should look at the results of last years AA sectional and 40s seems a reasonable adjustment when you look at runners finishing anywhere from 20-60s faster at Detweiler.
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Post by doctorwu on Oct 29, 2007 17:07:30 GMT -5
For Results of Belvidere (Boys and Girls) go to Home Page of IPTT and click on Results and scroll to the bottom - they are all there. I have done my adjustments taking into account the obvious bias posted on this site (40 second adjustments ? - only weather can account for that) and am waiting for an expert to confirm.
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Post by dogscoach on Oct 29, 2007 17:59:10 GMT -5
I agree with dbandre regarding the Centralia Sectional. The average improvement from the guys running at the sectional last year to Detweiler was 50 seconds. A similar type of improvement could be expected this year as the course was nearly as soft and muddy as it was in 2006.
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Post by neverstoprunning on Oct 29, 2007 18:49:31 GMT -5
For Results of Belvidere (Boys and Girls) go to Home Page of IPTT and click on Results and scroll to the bottom - they are all there. I have done my adjustments taking into account the obvious bias posted on this site (40 second adjustments ? - only weather can account for that) and am waiting for an expert to confirm. im confused are you saying 40 seconds slower or faster than detweiller?
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Post by dogscoach on Oct 29, 2007 18:55:08 GMT -5
The average improvement from the ICC course to Detweiler last year was 20 seconds. Assuming the same length course and similar conditions, dbandre's 25 second improvement estimate is again pretty close for this year's runners.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 29, 2007 21:22:04 GMT -5
For those of you who don't know this already, Detweiler is one of the fastest 3 mile courses in the country. It most likely is the fastest in this State that I know of personally.
Almost every course run on over 2.9 miles has to have time taken off to equal an equilavent time on Detweiler. Here is why, Detweiler has only a small gradual slope near from half mile race tree to finish line area. The start is downhill slightly from that same gradual slope and gradually goes funnels the field in the first 1/3 or so of a mile. The course has extremely long straights and wide sweeping turns for the most part.
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Post by runningmuth on Oct 30, 2007 9:42:23 GMT -5
These teams have a shot at 2nd and 3rd in AA state: Crystal Lake Central, Normal U, Metamora, Illinana Christian, Springfield, Belvidere North, and Yorkville.(not in my order) This will be a great race to watch and it could come down to the 6th runner to decide things. These teams pluse Scyamore will round out the top eight in AA State. Now my questions to the people are, who do you think could break into the top eight with a great race? Who out of my top eight do you think will fall out? Finally, what order do you perdict the top eight to be in?
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Post by dbandre on Oct 30, 2007 10:16:31 GMT -5
These teams have a shot at 2nd and 3rd in AA state: Crystal Lake Central, Normal U, Metamora, Illinana Christian, Springfield, Belvidere North, and Yorkville.(not in my order) This will be a great race to watch and it could come down to the 6th runner to decide things. These teams pluse Scyamore will round out the top eight in AA State. Now my questions to the people are, who do you think could break into the top eight with a great race? Who out of my top eight do you think will fall out? Finally, what order do you perdict the top eight to be in? I can think of one team that is a longshot and another that isn't. Delavan has the best 1-4 in AA, better than Sycamore. Their 5th man can get buried, but Detweiler is a fast course were a 5th man whose buried in the pack can still move forward and hang around to run a great time. However that goes for everyone. They 4 guys in the top 20 at PND and will probably have all 4 of their 1st 4 under 16 minutes, but their 5th will have to finish in the upper tier of where the best #6's are running for this to occur. Right now they look like they will place somewhere between 9th and 16th. Galesburg I think will be the team that is in the Top 8. Yorkville is the most likely to finish out of the top 8 that you listed. The way I see it are that Galesburg and Yorkville are very similar teams.
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