AA State Meet predictions individual and team-wise

[badkarma96]

Chatham Glenwood is also a potential top-ten threat.

[dbandre]

CONVERSIONS TO DETWEILER:

ICC: -25s
CENTRALIA: -45s
NILES WEST: -40s
BELVIDERE: -5s


105 Sycamore
169 Springfield High
179 Illiana Christian
230 Belvidere North
231 Chatham Glenwood
241 Normal U-High
242 Crystal Lake Central
247 Metamora
253 Yorkville
260 Wheaton (St. Francis)
278 Dixon
291 Galesburg
306 Delevan
322 Niles (Northridge Prep)
322 Bartonville Limestone
324 West Chicago (Wheaton Academy)
326 Chicago University
336 Lemont
375 Springfield S.H.G
396 Troy Triad
402 Breese (Mater Dei)

[dbandre]

badkarma96 said:

Chatham Glenwood is also a potential top-ten threat.

I almost forgot about them... Then I re did the predictions with -5s and 0s from Belvidere Sectional times and it was ridiculous the change that can occur.

Please send a personal message if you know what the Belvidere course is like and how it compares to other courses around the state.

[runningmuth]

I was at the Belvidere Sectional and I think you would take more like :15 sec. off for the state meet. The conditions were very windy and the course was run differently by some teams. Two of the teams (which were in the top four) ran flag to flag while the rest ran on the painted line, this lead to cutting off about 20 to 30 meters in my estimation through the race. It will be interesting how the scores will shake out after there is no confusion about what is the correct course. I think Springfield High is the leading team for second place as of today in my mind. I think Yorkville will be in the top five at the end of the day. They are ready to break out with a great race this week.

[dbandre]

I really didn't adjust to conditions. I just took the average difference the last 2 or 3 times a sectional ran at a course to their times Detweiler, randomly picking 10 runners, but always looking at the top 5 times at each sectional to Detweiler. Unless Belvidere has the top 5 teams in state which I doubt I won't take off 15s, 10s maybe, but an approximation of what they would run on Detweiler on the same day under the same conditions. Everyone had wind and rain at Sectionals.

[moocher]

I compared the Western sun conference teams from Belvidere to the race at Kaneland for conference and came up with
Campbell 51 seconds faster
Gilmer 37
Grimson 1:02
Sliwa 54
Hueber 47
Huml 1:10
Tanis 39
Reusche 53
Leach 39
f*gan 29
Austin 25
Pape 38
Furco 1:14
Addison 1:20
Holm 1:14
Valle 59
Alef 1:02
Bilinski 1:11
Szopinski 47
Average time difference was 53 seconds. The course at Kaneland has run 1:00 -1:05 slower than state for years.
I would say 7 seconds slower than Peora is a real safe bet.
I thought the course would have run faster but the wind was pretty strong. Plus it was not flagged well and lots of people ran pretty far off the white line and I know my kids were really confused as what to do!
Team break down
Sycamore 44 seconds faster
Yorkville 50 seconds
Kaneland 1:12

Hope that helps

[runningmuth]

When was the last time Sectionals were run at Belvidere? I can't seem to find those results. I also believe this was the first time it was run at the High School since their normal course is run at a Spencer Park, that couldn't take all the people parking at it or at a golf course. Also, the only results that are found are for Regionals at Belvidere. This wouldn't work because my team didn't put up normal times, we coasted through our regional, so a conversion wouldn't work. My point is I think that the Belvidere sectional has four out of the top six or seven teams in AA state. I can't wait to see the results and I hope all the teams are at their best come Sat. Your conversions stir up great conversations so thank you for putting in the time. I look forward to seeing how close you are after Sat. race.

[runforyourlife]

You may have already talked about this but were you able to take into account injuries at all? McMorrow of Metamora has been injured most of the season but should be back and able to at least keep up with Brooks.

[doctorwu]

Ok HERE IT IS - My unexpert but experienced opinion after sorting through 3 years of results, and looking at adjustments. Are we sure detweiller is 3 miles. Just looking at the times I wonder, but I am not judging. After looking at all the posts regarding weather, bias, etc. I looked at it 5 different ways and decided on the following adjustments. If anyone has any suggestions, I can change these predictions in a second. My basis for this adjustment was anomalies in the top ten runners (such as when a runner moved from 25 under one scenario to 4 in another). I also only input the top 5 runners from each team

My adjustments
Belvidere -14
Niles West and Centralia -32 (this might be Niles west)
ICC -25

Team Standings
Sycamore 117
Belvidere North 260
Yorkville 262
CLC 273
ILL Christion 281
UHigh 304
Dixon 310
Springfield 315
Metamora 337

Here is the same perspective with Belvidere only being adjusted 5 seconds and the others being adjusted as above

Sycamore 147
ILL Christion 270
UHigh 295
Belv North 299
Springfield303
Yorkville 305
CLC 308
Meta 325
Dixon 340
Delevan 347


Anyone have any other reasonable scenarios I can run in about 10 minutes.

[dbandre]

doctorwu:

Here is what you can do and I ran about 7000 simulations of last years class A races by moving +/-3s for each sectional last year 1s at time. It was the best prediction out there. The race has to be run still, but I had an idea who could possibly trophy, who couldn't and so on and so forth. I may do that again since I have more computing power available this year.

I also suggest you use my conversions as most on the board are in agreement with them on how close they actually are.

BTW, you can't just use the top ten runners. Randomness allows you take out bias. I use top 5 as a control and 10 others to set the conversion times. It's not perfect, but for the most part works. The best part is tells you what you are capable of as a coach. As a runner this is an ineffective tool, but as a fan and spectator, it allows you to see who is having an great, average, or bad day as a team.

[doctorwu]

I have not run 7000 yet, but I have run 8 with ranges from no adjustments to all the combinations mentioned in the thread and mixing what I thought was reasonable.

This ranking is based on the average place for runners based on those 8 models

sycamore 123
belvidere north 272
yorkville 279
clc 282
ill christian 296
springfield 297
uhigh 301
dixon 313
metamora 326
delevan 353

The race needs to be run-- I will do an individual top 30 after I run other models.

[doctorwu]

I have not run 7000 yet, but I have run 8 with ranges from no adjustments to all the combinations mentioned in the thread and mixing what I thought was reasonable.

This ranking is based on the average place for runners based on those 8 models

sycamore 123
belvidere north 272
yorkville 279
clc 282
ill christian 296
springfield 297
uhigh 301
dixon 313
metamora 326
delevan 353

The race needs to be run-- I will do an individual top 30 after I run other models.

[doctorwu]

Sorry about the double post.

BTW - I used various top 10 runners plus other top team runeers in coming up with my intial estimates. I also went back 3 years and looked at A and AA results and used those in my adjustments when I was familiar with a course. That was my method of control.

[runningfan]

Top 20 based on these recent adjustments.


1 Nick Holmes 14:37
2 Tim Hird 14:40
3 Nick Lane 14:40
4 Derek Campbell 14:41
5 Moe Bahrani 14:46
6 Colin Mickow 14:53
7 Nick Kramer 14:58
8 Kevin Forde 14:59
9 Garrett McKnight 15:00
10 Phil Diamond 15:04
11 Andrew Larsen 15:05
12 Jordan Piaskowy 15:05
13 Neal Anderson 15:09
14 Clay Elward 15:09
15 Aaron Osborne 15:15
16 Blake Brooks 15:17
17 Spencer Guerrero 15:24
18 Lucas Cherry 15:29
19 Brad Walwer 15:42
20 Justin Lee 15:48

[xcrunner15]

runningfan said:

Top 20 based on these recent adjustments.


1 Nick Holmes 14:37
2 Tim Hird 14:40
3 Nick Lane 14:40
4 Derek Campbell 14:41
5 Moe Bahrani 14:46
6 Colin Mickow 14:53
7 Nick Kramer 14:58
8 Kevin Forde 14:59
9 Garrett McKnight 15:00
10 Phil Diamond 15:04
11 Andrew Larsen 15:05
12 Jordan Piaskowy 15:05
13 Neal Anderson 15:09
14 Clay Elward 15:09
15 Aaron Osborne 15:15
16 Blake Brooks 15:17
17 Spencer Guerrero 15:24
18 Lucas Cherry 15:29
19 Brad Walwer 15:42
20 Justin Lee 15:48

where are the rest of the guys from the belvidere sectinoal? such as the other mickow twin, grimson, gilmer, mcguire and ferrigan. Mcguire being the 10th guy with a time of 15:28 converts to 15:13 putting him 15th and the other three all infront of him

yet still, nice job with all your work youve been doin
personally i think itll go

1.sycamore
2.crystal lake central
3.yorkville
4.springfield
5.belvidere north

[xcrunner30]

Gilmer was 7 seconds behind Colin Mickow, Grimson was 4 seconds behind Gilmer, Hunter Mickow was 5 seconds behind Grimson, Ferrigan was 3 seconds behind H. Mickow and McGuire 3 seconds behind Ferrigan. Or Results being:
C. Mickow 15:07
Gilmer 15:14
Grimson 15:18
H. Mickow 15:23
Ferrigan 15:26
McGuire 15:29

Now you can plug those in and see the new ranks.

Should look like this:

1 Nick Holmes 14:37
2 Tim Hird 14:40
3 Nick Lane 14:40
4 Derek Campbell 14:41
5 Moe Bahrani 14:46
6 Colin Mickow 14:53
7 Nick Kramer 14:58
8 Kevin Forde 14:59
9 Garrett McKnight 15:00
10 Matthew Gilmer 15:00
11 Phil Diamond 15:04
12 Peter Grimson 15:04
13 Andrew Larsen 15:05
14 Jordan Piaskowy 15:05
15 Neal Anderson 15:09
16 Clay Elward 15:09
17 Hunter Mickow 15:09
18 Kasey Ferrigan 15:12
19 Aaron Osborne 15:15
20 Brian McGuire 15:15
21 Blake Brooks 15:17
22 Spencer Guerrero 15:24
23 Lucas Cherry 15:29
24 Brad Walwer 15:42
25 Justin Lee 15:48

That's a look at potential All-State.

[runningfan]

Great work XCrunner30. Mine was definitely wrong. I only accounted for the top 5 in each sectional. Sorry I'm just a rank amateur but getting better all the time.

[runninxc]

xcrunner30 said:

Gilmer was 7 seconds behind Colin Mickow, Grimson was 4 seconds behind Gilmer, Hunter Mickow was 5 seconds behind Grimson, Ferrigan was 3 seconds behind H. Mickow and McGuire 3 seconds behind Ferrigan. Or Results being:
C. Mickow 15:07
Gilmer 15:14
Grimson 15:18
H. Mickow 15:23
Ferrigan 15:26
McGuire 15:29

Now you can plug those in and see the new ranks.

Should look like this:

1 Nick Holmes 14:37
2 Tim Hird 14:40
3 Nick Lane 14:40
4 Derek Campbell 14:41
5 Moe Bahrani 14:46
6 Colin Mickow 14:53
7 Nick Kramer 14:58
8 Kevin Forde 14:59
9 Garrett McKnight 15:00
10 Matthew Gilmer 15:00
11 Phil Diamond 15:04
12 Peter Grimson 15:04
13 Andrew Larsen 15:05
14 Jordan Piaskowy 15:05
15 Neal Anderson 15:09
16 Clay Elward 15:09
17 Hunter Mickow 15:09
18 Kasey Ferrigan 15:12
19 Aaron Osborne 15:15
20 Brian McGuire 15:15
21 Blake Brooks 15:17
22 Spencer Guerrero 15:24
23 Lucas Cherry 15:29
24 Brad Walwer 15:42
25 Justin Lee 15:48

That's a look at potential All-State.

WOW. those top 5 are DANGEROUSLY close. i'm excited just thinking about it.

[cyron10k]

All equations aside, Holmes has actually run much faster than the "adjusted" time. I'm sure he just cruised the sectional course.

The others haven't actually run those times for a full three miles.

But it should still be a great race!

[800man]

Ealrlier in the year I had Springfield pegged as #2 and I haven't seen anything to change that:

Top Ten:

Sycamore
Springfield
CLC
U high
Metamora
Yorkville
Illiana Christian
Blvd North
Chatham Glenwood
Wheaton St Francis

11-15
Dixon
Northridge
Limestone
Delavan
Lemont


16-21
Galesburg
Wheaton Academy
Chicago Univ High
Springfield Sac Heart
Breese
Troy Triad

[doctorwu]

800 Man -What adjustments are you using for each course and it appears that you are not figuring in individual qualifiers.

[dbandre]

Individual qualifiers don't score.

[doctorwu]

I understand that, but I see top 25 rankings and if individuals take spots it does affect team standings depending on where they finish. My team standings include all individuals and top 5 from each team.

What did you end up adjusting?

[doctorwu]

I understand you now - so my rankings are only good for individual top 25s and my teams need to be adjusted. I will stick with my predictions from above, just skip the scores.

[dbandre]

you need an XC math lesson then!!!

[doctorwu]

Yeah, I need to check my formulas - sorry --- I still think the Belvidere Sectional will put 3 in the top 5 based on my new calcs. The top 25 posted above by someone is missing individuals who ran better times with no adjustments made, so my math can't be too bad. See you this weekend.

[runaround]

What are everyone's thoughts on the AA girls race this weekend? Lots on the boys, but I'm interested in the girls as well.

[800man]

doctorwu said:

800 Man -What adjustments are you using for each course and it appears that you are not figuring in individual qualifiers.

dbandre already answered part of it. Individuals are thrown out and not used in scoring. That is why Sycamore may score less than 60 even with only 3 all -state runners. A guy in 30th place overall may be 18-22 for a team score, or even lower.

As for adjustments, I am still correcting back to any times run at Detwieler. I also look at how an individual team approached their sectional meet. For example, Illiana Christian was a pretty large favorite in the Jones Sectional, did they train through a little, I'm saying yes but the teams that finished 3-6 were running their guts out to qualify so I don't think the same correction factor can be applied across the sectional, Puschautz a few earlier had run a 15:39 at Niles and last Saturday he was just over 16:00. Now were conditions worse, could be, or was he pretty confident in his team and himself qualifying, I'm not sure.

Same for Centralia, How hard was Springfield actually pushed? They won pretty easily. AS for Belvidere, this is the weird one. Because of the course layout there were huge variations in times, some running flag to flag and some follwing the line. I don't believe a constant correction can be applied there either.

So to your question it's multiple time adjustments for competition level, course conditions, and some good old horse sense.

My qualifying statement will be since the Belvidere sectional was supposedly the toughest or had the highest percentage of top ranked teams they should perform simiilarly this week. I don't see Belvidere North taking home a trophy, it's possible but I don't see it. Can they be top 5, sure anything can happen but I think they ran either over their heads last week or they knew the course the best and took advantage of that, or other teams, CLC and Yorkville may have been looking ahead a week.

I also think people may be underrating the ICC sectional and overrating the Jones sectional. But that's just my opinion.

[dbandre]

If someone didn't race sectional hard, then they probably didn't race regional or conference hard making it 3 straight weeks without a hard race and a month between hard efforts. Apply this across a whole team and that is a recipe for disaster.

[runningfan]

cyron10k said:

All equations aside, Holmes has actually run much faster than the "adjusted" time. I'm sure he just cruised the sectional course.

The others haven't actually run those times for a full three miles.

But it should still be a great race!

As I looked at Holmes reg-sect performance last year, it seems consistent with this year with exception to what everyone thinks he will do at state, which is much much better (+70/s)

My questions are:

What happen to him last year to finish so poorly?
Was he injured or something?
Why could we not expect a similar blow-up this year as did last year?