tfxc
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Posts: 46
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Post by tfxc on Oct 23, 2007 20:00:00 GMT -5
I stated earlier in the season that the AC sectional was the toughest, well I was way wrong. This sectional is so deep, a bad day from one runner will cost a team big. I just have my doubts on PBL. I hope I am wrong about them because they are a fine group of young men and are a strong team. They would EASILY make it out of any other sectional! I just don't think they have not been consistent enough and it will come back to haunt them this weekend in this tough and very deep field. They have been very up and down, an I feel the down coming on. Just my opinion.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 23, 2007 20:02:04 GMT -5
I stated earlier in the season that the AC sectional was the toughest, well I was way wrong. This sectional is so deep, a bad day from one runner will cost a team big. I just have my doubts on PBL. I hope I am wrong about them because they are a fine group of young men and are a strong team. They would EASILY make it out of any other sectional! I just don't think they have not been consistent enough and it will come back to haunt them this weekend in this tough and very deep field. They have been very up and down, an I feel the down coming on. Just my opinion. They are on their home course, I would think that would be an advantage. You must be trying to fire them up.
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sc225
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Post by sc225 on Oct 23, 2007 20:02:06 GMT -5
scratch that, I can't remember if they beat cumberland or not, i don't think they did come to think of it
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Post by circuit on Oct 23, 2007 20:52:56 GMT -5
tfxc: not sure where you are from or how much you have seen of PBL, but your characterization of up and down is not correct. You may be looking at results without Carlson who played football and only ran 3 meets before regional. PBL doesn't run a lot of big meets and trains through the smaller week day competitions. their regional times indicate that they are peaking. most of us in central illinois are unfamiliar with the beecher course, never having been sent that far north or run a meet there, but the posts from people who know the course indicate that it is one of the more difficult places to run. i personally have not seen any high school xc course with a hill like beechers. the only thing comparable in my experience is some of the hills on the river to river course across southern illinois
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Post by circuit on Oct 23, 2007 21:20:35 GMT -5
PBL was 5th at Spartan Classic behind Monticello, Delavan, Shelbyville and Cumberland. PBL beat both SJO and Unity at that meet as well as at the PBL invite. They beat SJO at the SVC meet. Most of the scores were relatively close, so it still comes down to a real horse race on saturday with 7 good teams in the mix. Monticello toured the sectional course this afternoon and josh clark reportedly told some PBL kids that he was running saturday, in which case it may be 8 teams capable of getting out
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tfxc
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Post by tfxc on Oct 23, 2007 21:22:15 GMT -5
Was Carlson there at the Spartan Classic when they lit it up for 5th? They were suppose to challenge to win and were a distant 5th. St. Joe has vastly improved since then and so has Unity. Add in Beecher and maybe PBL may be a little overrated. Like I said I may be wrong. Maybe Carlson didn't run at the Spartan, I don't have the results in front of me right now. For PBL's sake I hope I am wrong, but on the other hand who of the top 5 I predicted will they knock out?
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Post by volsxc1 on Oct 23, 2007 21:38:32 GMT -5
Anyone have a picture of this crazy huge hill from Beecher? My interest is definitly peaked from hearing all the descriptions of this hill.
I've never said that the Beecher course isn't difficult, I was just giving the conversion for Kickapoo based on what I've seen for the course I'm familiar with, nothing more.
I believe Carlson ran the Classic. What will help PBL is if Brehm, Pacey both finish top 5, and Cardosa finishes in the top 15. Then they MUST have a GREAT race out of Carlson and Kyrouac. There biggest weakness is at #5, where in a race like this there are a lot of bumpers with teams 6 and 7 guys getting ahead of him. But the top 3 runners could be just enough to get them through to the next week. I've done like sparky and ran a few simulation races on paper with different time conversions for all of the regional courses and in both of them PBL was in the top 5 based on their top 3 carrying the load.
Monticello will have to have a much better race out of Hollingsworth and Foley, or they wont' make it out, even with Clark running. 3-4 wks of not training is tough to come back from, but chances are, on natural talent alone he will still be in the top 20. Best of luck to him and hopefully he'll surprise us all with a top 10 finish.
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Post by wornflats on Oct 23, 2007 22:01:23 GMT -5
This will definitely be the most competitive sectional in the state. I see at least 6 different teams that could be the winner, which means at least one good team is going to get eliminated.
Unfortunately, it is going to get a lot tougher the following week. Each of the other sectionals will be advancing one or two elite teams, and I don't see anyone from this sectional being able to crack the top 5.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 24, 2007 6:50:34 GMT -5
I am also interested in Mt. Beecher. Would appreciate any comparison. Any comparison to Killer Hill on Cowden course?or running up the dam hills at Shelbyvilles course? I know Paarlberg is the real deal. Right now with the time adjustments he is already roughly :30 seconds better on paper than Jones and Feldhake. Those of you who ran at Beecher, do you really think he will beat Feldhake and Jones by that much on Sat?
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 24, 2007 6:59:25 GMT -5
I have ran beecher before and all I have to say is Beechers Course is the HARDEST course I have ever ran and ever will run!!! For Paarleberg to go under 16 on that course is unbeilivable! I have to put him up there with the top five in state. I would also subract at least 45 seconds for that course to PBL's course. So if we subtract 45 seconds from Beecher to PBL that would put Paarleberg at 15:01, Pacey at 15:21, Brehm at 15:36, Carey at 15:52 and Cardoza at 16:15 on the pbl course. I don't think that is going to happen. I wouldn't be surprised that PBL course times end up running similar to Beecher course times if not slower. Just one mans opinion.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 24, 2007 7:03:38 GMT -5
This will definitely be the most competitive sectional in the state. I see at least 6 different teams that could be the winner, which means at least one good team is going to get eliminated. Unfortunately, it is going to get a lot tougher the following week. Each of the other sectionals will be advancing one or two elite teams, and I don't see anyone from this sectional being able to crack the top 5. I think Bago, Elmwood, Robinson, and maybe Rockford Christian are better teams, maybe Oregon. I think one of the PBL teams could be close to top five, but all five that make it out could be in top 10-12 range.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 24, 2007 7:07:26 GMT -5
Anyone have a picture of this crazy huge hill from Beecher? My interest is definitly peaked from hearing all the descriptions of this hill. I've never said that the Beecher course isn't difficult, I was just giving the conversion for Kickapoo based on what I've seen for the course I'm familiar with, nothing more. I believe Carlson ran the Classic. What will help PBL is if Brehm, Pacey both finish top 5, and Cardosa finishes in the top 15. Then they MUST have a GREAT race out of Carlson and Kyrouac. There biggest weakness is at #5, where in a race like this there are a lot of bumpers with teams 6 and 7 guys getting ahead of him. But the top 3 runners could be just enough to get them through to the next week. I've done like sparky and ran a few simulation races on paper with different time conversions for all of the regional courses and in both of them PBL was in the top 5 based on their top 3 carrying the load. Monticello will have to have a much better race out of Hollingsworth and Foley, or they wont' make it out, even with Clark running. 3-4 wks of not training is tough to come back from, but chances are, on natural talent alone he will still be in the top 20. Best of luck to him and hopefully he'll surprise us all with a top 10 finish. volsxc1I agree with you on Monticello. I have Clark at 16th in my projections and Foley running better than he did at regionals and I still don't have Monticello getting out. Just curious, what do your projections show?
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Post by unbreakable89 on Oct 24, 2007 11:08:54 GMT -5
Anyone have a picture of this crazy huge hill from Beecher? My interest is definitly peaked from hearing all the descriptions of this hill. I've never said that the Beecher course isn't difficult, I was just giving the conversion for Kickapoo based on what I've seen for the course I'm familiar with, nothing more. I believe Carlson ran the Classic. What will help PBL is if Brehm, Pacey both finish top 5, and Cardosa finishes in the top 15. Then they MUST have a GREAT race out of Carlson and Kyrouac. There biggest weakness is at #5, where in a race like this there are a lot of bumpers with teams 6 and 7 guys getting ahead of him. But the top 3 runners could be just enough to get them through to the next week. I've done like sparky and ran a few simulation races on paper with different time conversions for all of the regional courses and in both of them PBL was in the top 5 based on their top 3 carrying the load. Monticello will have to have a much better race out of Hollingsworth and Foley, or they wont' make it out, even with Clark running. 3-4 wks of not training is tough to come back from, but chances are, on natural talent alone he will still be in the top 20. Best of luck to him and hopefully he'll surprise us all with a top 10 finish. I couldn't find any pics of Goodnow but i did find this little video..... rubikvids.com/viewvideo.php?id=MKzCXrFHR9oIts i video with the hill in the winter when its used for sledding. Its not a really good one but it kinda gives you an idea. Its about 100-120 meters long, and rises about 50 feet from the meadow. when you run the course you run the hill twice and go up it long ways. Theres is also a trail in the back loop with an up hill curve which rises to a good 30 ft. high peek, and there are two dips that are really steep. ( the dips are kinda like Sceneca but not as tall)
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Post by newpackman on Oct 24, 2007 11:14:07 GMT -5
Ok here is my offical guys side prediction (I won't change it, and I'll probably be wrong)
1. Shelbyville-They've beat everybody in the sectional exept T-Town all ready this year, and I think this will be there best race yet.
2. Cumberland-This team is flat out great. With some really good young runners, and Doug Powers leading (he was on there 2nd place team) they will be tough to beat.
3. PBL-Alot of people doubt wither they'll make it out, but I think they'll challenge for the title. This is there sectional, and they'll get up huge for it.
4. T-Town-Good team, but I don't think there 5th is strong enough to take the title.
5. St. Joe-I've watched along with everybody else as this team has changed into a hole new kind of animal.
6. Beecher-I don't think in the end they have the horses in the back to pull out a tough win. I'll bet there not to far back.
7. Tolono Unity-This team has amazed me this year. They have improved more then any team I can remember in a long time, and I really wish they'd get out.
8. Monticello-Even with Clark this team is done. If Josh could come back and run up front with Hollingworth and Rhodes, they might get out, but with Clark not 100%, and Hollingworth in a funk they just can't do it.
Top Ten Individuals
1. Matt Felhake-It's time for put up or shut up. He needs this win, or he won't be near Thompson and Tedrick at state.
2. Justin Jones-Pushing Matt to the tap as I see it. This kid WILL be in the front pack at state.
3. Paarlberg-Another top ten in the state caliber kid, watch for him to stay in step all the way.
4. Tom Pacey-Mr. Pacey is going to help lead a PBL team that is hunger and ready.
5. Brehm-Haning with Tom all the way, the two of them make sure PBL makes it out.
6. Brent Rhodes-Get's his payment after losing it in the final 400 meters last year.
7. Bommer (sp)-This kid leads a very good T-Town front three, and will be in that front pack the whole way.
8. Jeremy Reel-Helps with a Shelbyville sectional championship.
9. Clayton Baker-Always close to Reel, and I think he'll be right on him at sectionals
10. Doug Powers-This kid is hungrey after just missing state as a individual last year, and will run well this year.
Like I said I'm probably wrong, but will have to wait and see. ;D
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Post by unbreakable89 on Oct 24, 2007 11:23:42 GMT -5
Ok, PBL in front of beecher,... mby on a good day, PBL in front of T-town,... no. I don't get what you are seeing? Why did you put them there?
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Post by westrunner1 on Oct 24, 2007 11:33:58 GMT -5
My question to newpackman is why would you think SJO will beat beecher. They have raced twice this year at large meets and beecher beat them both times. Also they a lot of better end horses than PBL does. I agree with you on SJO they are becoming one hell of a team, but i dont believe they will be able to beat beecher, and dont think PBL will be able either. Just putting down my opinion, not trying to knock you newpackman, just want to make conversation.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 24, 2007 11:41:52 GMT -5
Just my opinion. I'm not saying it's going to be right (in fact I said mulitiple times I think it will be wrong). It's kind of like when you fill out a NCAA basketball bracket, you just have to go with your gut sometimes. I don't think Beecher has the back end horses to roll with a couple of these teams,(like St. Joe) and I think PBL will be up for this meet, and be able to beat T-Town. Like I said this is just my opinion.
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Post by volsxc1 on Oct 24, 2007 11:59:54 GMT -5
Sparky,
Mine were pretty close in line with yours, I'll just share one of them with you.
I had 1. Cumberland - 114 2. PBL 127 3. Ttown 135 4. Shelbyville - 141 5. Beecher - 146 6. SJO - 147 7. Unity 186 8. Monticello - 187
But that was only one scenario. No matter what I did, the top 6-7 spots were always very very close. All I'll say is the top 7 teams can be anywhere from 1-7th, and Monticello could definitly find a way into 5 if someone has just a small lapse in 1 or 2 guys. I can't wait, it should be exciting. There will definitly be at least one team that will surprise people.
What I said about PBL may stand true if you look at them. they are not overrated at this point. The top 3 guys could definitly carry the load and score very little points to offset all the better pack teams. It will all come down to if Carlson and Kyrouac can find a way to cut some major time off.
Shelbyville and T-Town will depend on how #4 and 5 run for them, and Beecher will depend on if Carey can close the gap on Paarlberg and if 3-5 can improve and get ahead of the better pack teams.
SJO will have to pack up and have all 7 in early in order to have a chance to make any impact due to no front runners.
Unity will have to have improvement in #5 to move up.
Cumberland is the team to beat if Powers continues to run like he has been.
Monticello - NEVER count them out, Butler is a top notch coach that will have them ready. we all know what Hollingsworth is capable of..if he has a good day and Foley does too, they could sneak up on you.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 24, 2007 12:20:51 GMT -5
Sparky, Mine were pretty close in line with yours, I'll just share one of them with you. I had 1. Cumberland - 114 2. PBL 127 3. Ttown 135 4. Shelbyville - 141 5. Beecher - 146 6. SJO - 147 7. Unity 186 8. Monticello - 187 But that was only one scenario. No matter what I did, the top 6-7 spots were always very very close. All I'll say is the top 7 teams can be anywhere from 1-7th, and Monticello could definitly find a way into 5 if someone has just a small lapse in 1 or 2 guys. I can't wait, it should be exciting. There will definitly be at least one team that will surprise people. What I said about PBL may stand true if you look at them. they are not overrated at this point. The top 3 guys could definitly carry the load and score very little points to offset all the better pack teams. It will all come down to if Carlson and Kyrouac can find a way to cut some major time off. Shelbyville and T-Town will depend on how #4 and 5 run for them, and Beecher will depend on if Carey can close the gap on Paarlberg and if 3-5 can improve and get ahead of the better pack teams. SJO will have to pack up and have all 7 in early in order to have a chance to make any impact due to no front runners. Unity will have to have improvement in #5 to move up. Cumberland is the team to beat if Powers continues to run like he has been. Monticello - NEVER count them out, Butler is a top notch coach that will have them ready. we all know what Hollingsworth is capable of..if he has a good day and Foley does too, they could sneak up on you. Good summary. FYI Talked to someone who was at PBL yesterday and they did not see Clark with Monticello. I would hate to run on those rough areas coming off of a broken foot. Probably three good teams are going to be left home that could have made it out of any other sectional. Same old, Same old at PBL sectional.
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Post by unbreakable89 on Oct 24, 2007 12:50:19 GMT -5
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Post by volsxc1 on Oct 24, 2007 14:59:27 GMT -5
Just one comment on PBL, with so many "over rated" statements, etc. I have a comparison statement for them. You could almost compare PBL's look to Monticello's of earlier in the year. They have 2 extremely talented/hard working front runners, and a #3 that matches up with most other teams #2 or 3 man. The main difference between Monticello and PBL is that Monticello has a stronger 4th, but their #5 is slower than PBL's. At the Spartan Classic, it was Monticello's front runners that won it for them. At this sectional, it could be the PBL front runners making it out for them. Those low low pts for the front 2-3 guys could get them out, even if #4 and 5 are in the 50's and 60's place wise.
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Post by lwwildcat on Oct 24, 2007 15:47:20 GMT -5
I've had the honor of coaching teams who've run on the Beecher, Shelbyville, Cowden-Herrick, & the St. Joe Regional course. Shelbyville's 800 M. hill is the nastiest and C-H wins for steepest %. Beecher on the other hand - child's play.
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Post by circuit on Oct 24, 2007 19:45:49 GMT -5
lwwildcat: since you have seen all the hills, give us the comparison between beecher and kickapoo. the adjustments sparky and vol are talking about are comparisons of cumberland regional, monticello regional, beecher and kickapoo, not shelbyville's dam or cowden's hill
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Post by circuit on Oct 24, 2007 19:57:58 GMT -5
about all this PBL overrated stuff. anybody who knew anything about PBL knew that they were overrated at #2. people have been dissing kids who didn't make up the ratings. the notion that PBL would challenge to win at the Spartan Classic was sombody's guess that was guessing based on last year and 2 sub 17 minute runners who graduated and were replaced by about 3 minutes additional time. one of those replacement guys played football, ran only 3 races prior to regional and still beat beecher's 4 and 5. the other guy has dropped about 90 seconds this year and passed beecher's 6 in the last 150 yards to win the regional for PBL. keep on dissing these kids for another week or so, cause it is working
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tfxc
Contributor
Posts: 46
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Post by tfxc on Oct 24, 2007 20:28:57 GMT -5
about all this PBL overrated stuff. I guess when I spoke earlier I was talking about overrated at 2nd, (although I think they are still a little overrated). I may be wrong with them at 8, but I am having trouble putting them in the top 5. I just think Shelbyville, T-town, Cumberland and Beecher are heads and shoulders better than anyone else, and I really think coach Jamison has done a great job with both his girls and boys this year and they are ready to explode this week and next. Just my opinion, and I know it is not the same as others. It makes for great conversation, and I don't mean to "diss" on others. There are a lot of deserving teams at this sectional, but the plain facts are that only 5 will advance. It seems like 15 of the top 20 teams are at this sectional and Aurora. These runners just have to deal with it, just like the girls teams at Elmwood who have a Very tough Girls sectional.
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Post by xcfan2006 on Oct 25, 2007 7:31:31 GMT -5
I agree with you tfxc in the fact that there will be some very good teams out of the Aurora and PBL sectional that will be sitting out the state meet. It will make for a tough Saturday for some teams.
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Post by volsxc1 on Oct 25, 2007 10:31:15 GMT -5
I see PBL needs to look no further than the sectional preview from IPTT for motivation. I think they were probably inadvertantly left off, b/c they have..
Paxton-Buckley-Loda Sectional
Team Rankings
Cumberland – Cumberland put on one of the better performance in a regional to surprise many at their regional and win the championship. If they can continue this performance, they will win the sectional championship also. Teutopolis – Teutopolis is a team that left something on the regional course and look to be a team that will be wanting to show that this season has not been a fluke. They need their whole team to run well and if that happens, they will take the title from Cumberland. Shelbyville – If Selby can run a great race, Shelbyville will challenge for the sectional title. They have such a solid pack that they are difficult to beat in a big meet like this. Beecher – Beecher is running really well right now and if they can keep their pack close and break up a few packs, they will make it to state. If one runner falters in this group, they will not be making a trip because of how many great teams there are in this sectional. Tolono Unity – I am picking this team because of how well they have started to run right now. The coaches always seem to get the kids motivated and ready to make statements in big races. Others to Watch: Monticello and St. Joseph-Ogden
Not even a mention of them. They will probably still finish ahead of unity even with their back two farther back, b/c Unity's #5 isn't too far ahead of Carlson/Kyrouac and PBL's top 3 are better than Unity's 3. Should be a fun Saturday morning in the rain.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 25, 2007 10:38:52 GMT -5
Did one final mock up and then averaged all three. Last mock up had only sjo course dropping 20 seconds.
Cumberland 116-96-98===103 Teutopolis 116-109-99===108 PBL 118-121-109=======116 Beecher 129-132-118====126 SJO 144-147-147=======146 Shelbyville 147-122-130==133 Tolono-Unity 165-141-160=155 Monticello 189-152-171===170 Urbana U-High 195-201-218=205
Unbelievably close! I hope every team runs their best and nobody is effected by rough course. Weather forecast is calling for rain and 20mph winds. Good Luck to everyone!
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Post by veteranxcrunner on Oct 25, 2007 20:58:23 GMT -5
Here's some interesting information about the PBL XC Team, some things many folks were not aware of and food for fearful thought for those taking them all too lightly. - Cardosa is now 100% after being hurt most of the season with a sore knee. He's practiced well the last 2 weeks. - Carlson always ran after a football game, and has been training with the team regularly. He was just behind Beecher's #3 at Regional, after a football game the night before. No football for him now, only running. - Pacey was hurt early in the season and is now 100%. Oh yes, IESA State Champ 2 years ago. - Brehm was running with sore knees mid season and is now 100%. He shocked the world with his race at SJO Classic and is still overlooked. - Kryouac ran close to Beecher's #5 at the regional and is just rounding into shape. Oh yes, at SJO Classic, two of the top 5 were running with very heavy hearts due to family situations. Think their heads were into running a good race that day? This is the most overlooked team in the state. If you have checked some history, this group was IESA State Champs 4 years ago, coming out of no where. THEY BE HUNGRY.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 25, 2007 21:16:57 GMT -5
Here's some interesting information about the PBL XC Team, some things many folks were not aware of and food for fearful thought for those taking them all too lightly. - Cardosa is now 100% after being hurt most of the season with a sore knee. He's practiced well the last 2 weeks. - Carlson always ran after a football game, and has been training with the team regularly. He was just behind Beecher's #3 at Regional, after a football game the night before. No football for him now, only running. - Pacey was hurt early in the season and is now 100%. Oh yes, IESA State Champ 2 years ago. - Brehm was running with sore knees mid season and is now 100%. He shocked the world with his race at SJO Classic and is still overlooked. - Kryouac ran close to Beecher's #5 at the regional and is just rounding into shape. Oh yes, at SJO Classic, two of the top 5 were running with very heavy hearts due to family situations. Think their heads were into running a good race that day? This is the most overlooked team in the state. If you have checked some history, this group was IESA State Champs 4 years ago, coming out of no where. THEY BE HUNGRY. I guarantee you that many of the teams that PBL is competing against on Saturday are not taking them lightly. They are the defending sectional champions and IMO are the team to beat no matter what any mock sectional shows. They are on their home course, no travel time, completely healthy, talented, well coached and most importantly they know how to win when it counts. They are respected by their peers.
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