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Post by circuit on Oct 27, 2007 18:45:42 GMT -5
newpackman and benmanion: you now need to figure Paarlberg into the mix. he might stay with the pack, take off with 1mile to go and make the rest chase him. he put 21 seconds on Feldhake in the last mile today
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Oct 27, 2007 20:00:33 GMT -5
That is impressive and one of the reasons I think you cannot hand the title to anyone before the race has been run. That is an impressive finishing mile. You never know when someone will get into a rhythm and can push the pace in the end that is beyond what anyone else can handle.
As far as I am concerned, regarding title contenders, the more the merrier ;D
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Post by newpackman on Oct 28, 2007 13:17:35 GMT -5
I'm really sorry I missed Paalberg before I saw him yesterday. He is a GREAT runner. He will push the pace that last mile. I think he may have a race plan that could beat Parker. I know he put 21 secounds on Matt F, but he may not be able to put that on Parker in half a mile. I say half a mile, because if the leader dosn't have a sizable lead by then, then it will be very difficult to beat Thompson from there. Good luck to all.
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Post by wornflats on Oct 28, 2007 14:38:08 GMT -5
Based on his invitational times and his ability to peak for the state finals, Paalberg might be capable of 14:50 at Dettweiller. But if the whether is good, it will take more than 14:50 to win the championship.
There are at least five guys who are capaple of going under 14:50 at Detweiller this year, including Thompson who is capable of going under 14:40.
If Paalberg did not burn himself out in the sectionals, he might have a shot at sixth place.
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Post by irishcc on Oct 28, 2007 19:38:38 GMT -5
Based on his invitational times and his ability to peak for the state finals, Paalberg might be capable of 14:50 at Dettweiller. But if the whether is good, it will take a more than 14:50 to win the championship. There are at least five guys who are capaple of going under 14:50 at Detweiller this year, including Thompson who is capable of going under 14:40. If Paalberg did not burn himself out in the sectionals, he might have a shot at sixth place. Who are the 5 guys? I think that Paarlberg is capable of around 14:42 at Detweiler, and I think that will get him the win. Remember, he was right with Thompson at state last year.
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Post by redemption on Oct 28, 2007 20:16:12 GMT -5
Thompson also went for the win last year when Feldhake made his move. I think personally that is why parker finished 11th last year. I think by far he was a better runner than that and could have finished top 8 or so. If he didn't go for the win last year he could have done better. Also Parker was wearing all those clothes last year and could have suffered from some over heating.
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Post by oldskool on Oct 28, 2007 21:06:24 GMT -5
Suddenly a new challenger emerges! Many congrats to Paarlberg. I have to admit, I haven't paid much attention to him but its safe to say nobody will be surprised by him next weekend. Tedrick, Smith, Emerick, and Feldhake should really key off this kid to go after Parker. Does anyone have both his 2 mile split and the split for his last mile?
I'm beginning to think twice about the A state final. It might become more tactical than we realize with a number of equally-talented runners eyeing each other for ten minutes before it breaks wide open. What Paarlberg did was crush everyone's expectations for who'll really be up front and who to key off of.
I do still expect Parker to win but it doesn't look as easy as before. If the race becomes tactical then his chances increase, but if Paarlberg or Tedrick gets a wild hair then all bets are off. With that said, I am guessing the winning time to be around 14:50 because this won't be a drag race (although it could very easily become one from gun to finish).
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Post by 10:05.4 1975 on Oct 28, 2007 22:28:03 GMT -5
M. Paarlberg splits: 10:32 & 4:46 3rd mile. There is a recap of that race in the all state thread.
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Post by volsxc1 on Oct 29, 2007 0:25:13 GMT -5
Don't forget about Peterson as well. He may not win it, but he'll be in the race till the end I'd bet.
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 29, 2007 6:59:00 GMT -5
Don't forget about Peterson as well. He may not win it, but he'll be in the race till the end I'd bet. I like Paarlberg, Parker, Peterson, Feldhake, and one other who will surprise as top five in no particular order.
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dacse
Contributor
Posts: 45
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Post by dacse on Oct 29, 2007 7:28:02 GMT -5
Don't forget about Peterson as well. He may not win it, but he'll be in the race till the end I'd bet. I like Paarlberg, Parker, Peterson, Feldhake, and one other who will surprise as top five in no particular order. I think Morris from Lawrenceville could be the other top five finisher. He seems to always finish strong and has good foot speed. I guess we will find out on Saturday.
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Post by wornflats on Oct 29, 2007 11:40:39 GMT -5
I think there is better talent in the top 10 places than we have seen in a many years. Despite the fact that Feldhake has not dominated throughout the season, he will be a factor in determining the champion. It will come down to him and Thompson with Thompson winning by a narrow margin.
I am looking at the top 10 places going like this:
1. Thompson - Tremont (Ever try to run away from a cheetah?) 2. Feldhake - Effingham (Never take a champion for granted.) 3. Emerick - Elmwood (Great at peaking for the big race.) 4. Peterson - Fieldcrest (Talented, consistent, determined.) 5. Tedrick - Winnebago (Hungry to make up for last year.) 6. Paalberg - Beecher (Coming on strong at the right time.) 7. Morris - Lawrenceviflle 8. Smith - Winnebago 9. Miroux - Hall 10. Carlson - Oregon
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Post by newpackman on Oct 29, 2007 12:48:22 GMT -5
This is a tough race to call. There are a couple of factors that will make or break this race.
1. Thompson not leading-This kid is the favorite right now, and he won't even lead the race untill about half a mile to go. The pace setters early on will have a huge inpact.
2. The first mile-This is the worst mile. Nobody wants to lead at this point, and it must be fast if somebody wants a shot a Thompson.
3. Paalberg pushing the last mile-We all know by now what this kid did to Feldhake at Paxton, and the real question is can he do it to the feild at state.
4. Feldhake's two-mile dash. IF Matt F trys the same move twice, then things will get really intresting. I do still think that Matt has the abilty to break away and win this thing, but the middle mile will need to be blistering.
Those are the biggest things I think will effect the state winnner.
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Post by speedylightning on Oct 29, 2007 14:48:49 GMT -5
its true to say that Parker Thompson has the edge come State. But lets not forget who won last year and defeating the champ isnt going to be easy by no means. Brian Peterson is a strong two miler and he is also in contention for the win. the only way to beat Parker is to break his kick and if Matt is healthy enough he can do it. as for shaking off Peterson he has a lot of work to do especially after two miles cuz this kid has tremendous endurance. No matter what happens after two miles this race will come down to three runners, Parker, Matt, and Brian. not putting down other stud runners but these are the guys with state final experience and two are state champs in the respective events with Brian being state runner up. if the race is slow Parker wins and if the race is fast Matt wins. we wont know until the race starts.
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Post by wornflats on Oct 29, 2007 15:17:35 GMT -5
I think it is very unlikely that this will be a tactical state finals. I can think of at least two legitimate contenders who know they can't kick with the others guys
Those guys will be pushing the pace from start to finish to have a chance at winning. Since they are legitimate threats, the other contenders will have to go with them.
With a two mile time that is guaranteed to be under 10:00, the chances of "sitting and kicking" will be substantially reduced. (Paalburg ran a phenomenal final mile after going 10:30, but can he do it after going 9:50 ?)
I am reasonably sure that Thompson can put down a fast final mile after going 9:50, but I don't know how many others might have that ability.
Rather than being a tactical race, I look for this state finals to be a brutal test of guts and endurance.
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Post by speedylightning on Oct 29, 2007 15:34:15 GMT -5
i agree it will be a test of guts and endurance. Paarlberg can ran a blistering last mile i dont think he will have it in his legs if they go through the two mile under 10 minutes. Parker has proven on many occasions that he can run with anybody. no doubt he will be top three. Paarlberg will make this race fast but in the end wont have it in him to hang.
i disagree with the statement ,"I am reasonably sure that Thompson can put down a fast final mile after going 9:50, but I don't know how many others might have that ability."
there are two guys that are capable of running a great last mile after 9:50, Matt and Brian. if 9:50 is the split at two miles this race for the title will come down to three people and Paarlberg wont be in contention by then.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 29, 2007 17:44:35 GMT -5
speedy I think your forgetting about the other three our four guys out there. What about Tedrick, Paalberg, and Patterson?
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Post by jmontxc on Oct 29, 2007 17:53:32 GMT -5
Even tho hes a lil mad at me right now, Im goin with my home boy MATT FELDHAKE ! I dont think there is anyone who can beat him he will do anything to win state agian and he deffenatelly isnt letting thompson ruin that for him ! He will run the race of his life this weekend and show everyone how good he really is !! So im goin with Matt for the win !!
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kcor
All-State
10%
Posts: 106
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Post by kcor on Oct 29, 2007 21:05:30 GMT -5
I think there is better talent in the top 10 places than we have seen in a many years. Despite the fact that Feldhake has not dominated throughout the season, he will be a factor in determining the champion. It will come down to him and Thompson with Thompson winning by a narrow margin. I am looking at the top 10 places going like this: 1. Thompson - Tremont (Ever try to run away from a cheetah?) 2. Feldhake - Effingham (Never take a champion for granted.) 3. Emerick - Elmwood (Great at peaking for the big race.) 4. Peterson - Fieldcrest (Talented, consistent, determined.) 5. Tedrick - Winnebago (Hungry to make up for last year.) 6. Paalberg - Beecher (Coming on strong at the right time.) 7. Morris - Lawrenceviflle 8. Smith - Winnebago 9. Miroux - Hall 10. Carlson - Oregon Paalberg did defeat the defending state champ, and is coming on strong but there is no way he ends up 6th. Top 10 is still pushing it. Who knows momentum could carry him this weekend.
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Post by pacemaker on Oct 29, 2007 22:15:50 GMT -5
who does everyone think is flying under the radar than i think weve established who the clear favorites.. who could jump out and grab a top spot without being seen as one to do so?
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kcor
All-State
10%
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Post by kcor on Oct 29, 2007 22:18:15 GMT -5
who does everyone think is flying under the radar than i think weve established who the clear favorites.. who could jump out and grab a top spot without being seen as one to do so? Kyle Shimer, hes worked so hard for so long. He is do for something after multiple postseason failures.
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Post by badkarma96 on Oct 30, 2007 10:42:08 GMT -5
Patterson as an underdog. Block as a "feel good" story coming back from injury and making all state. Tony Young from Elmwood.
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Post by veteranxcrunner on Oct 30, 2007 19:22:26 GMT -5
You guys are totally missing the boat by not including Pacey in that top group. Brehm isn't too far behind. If you saw the SJO Classic, Brehm was running with Parker Thompson at the 2.5 mile mark. Jones got him with 200 meters to go and Feldhake in the last 50.
It's going to be a very interesting sprint to the finish.
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Post by badkarma96 on Oct 30, 2007 19:27:19 GMT -5
I forgot about the PBL boys. Good call.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 30, 2007 20:37:21 GMT -5
PBL boys will be in the top 15 if I had to guess, along with Powers from Cumberland, and Rhodes from Monticello. I'd bet either Pacey or Brehm can crack the top 8 or so. Depends on who has a good day.
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ochocinco
Contributor
Cursed by the number 4
Posts: 33
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Post by ochocinco on Oct 30, 2007 21:34:58 GMT -5
Dont forget Dodds from Unity. He ran extremely well at sectionals and has great coaching.
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Post by illini1 on Oct 30, 2007 21:36:19 GMT -5
I hope you're right, but I have no doubts that the top guys from that sectional will represent themselves quite nicely. Not gonna make any prediction other than that.
Just a thought I had the other day: Can you imagine how loaded this state meet field would be if Delavan (Nelson, Camp, etc.) and Princeton (the Mickow brothers) were still Class A???
Crazy.
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Post by pacemaker on Oct 30, 2007 22:44:51 GMT -5
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Post by pacemaker on Oct 30, 2007 22:49:25 GMT -5
if you believe in a great race from the start look no further tremont is lined up right next to matt feldhake
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Post by illini1 on Oct 30, 2007 23:07:14 GMT -5
I've never been one to buy into the numerous conspiracy theories that seem to plague Ron McGraw and the rest over in Bloomington, but I don't think those box assignments are a coincidence. If those are random then I'm Santa Claus.
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