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Post by pacemaker on Oct 30, 2007 23:16:24 GMT -5
I've never been one to buy into the numerous conspiracy theories that seem to plague Ron McGraw and the rest over in Bloomington, but I don't think those box assignments are a coincidence. If those are random then I'm Santa Claus. agreed
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rt20
All-State
Posts: 207
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Post by rt20 on Oct 30, 2007 23:28:05 GMT -5
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Post by illini1 on Oct 30, 2007 23:31:21 GMT -5
Gotcha. Sorry, I wasn't aware that the school manual is available to the general public so I had no idea. I guess the stars just fell into alignment for this one, so good luck to all.
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Post by pacemaker on Oct 30, 2007 23:39:01 GMT -5
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Post by newpackman on Oct 31, 2007 2:08:17 GMT -5
Ha ha, just more fuel on the fire. Parker will just latch on right from the get go.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 31, 2007 3:04:11 GMT -5
I think it's going to be Thompson and I think he'll run 14:37 regardless of conditions. He has as much talent and ability, and greater speed than Jeremy Stevens did.
If the conditions stay good, you could see 6 Class A runners going under 15 minutes. I think about 12 have the ability too, but that would be asking for everyone's best possible effort.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 31, 2007 9:32:50 GMT -5
Stevens>Thompson. I'd say that Thompson compairs alot more to Hatch or Ulrey. Guys who had alot of speed, and where pretty good a cross to. If Thompson wan't to be as good as stevens, then he needed to win the title as a sophmore. Stevens should have been a three time state champ. Only reason he lost it his junior year was because he ran the one race that Hatch could beat him at.
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Post by dbandre on Oct 31, 2007 11:18:42 GMT -5
Thompson is clearly ahead of where Hatch and Ulrey were at this point in his career. Stevens is a better example as they have had very similar careers to this point. Don't read too much into when someone was a State Champ. Look at how well they run and how they do it over the course of their career.
If I am wrong about Thompson, I am and it's no big deal, but he reminds a lot of Stevens and Havel.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Oct 31, 2007 11:42:41 GMT -5
I will say that he is a very interesting talent and will be fun watching him this year and next year. When it is all said and done he could be one of the all time Class A greats, but stevens was pretty darn good himself no!
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Post by newpackman on Oct 31, 2007 12:13:11 GMT -5
I still think Parker is more like Hatch and Ulrey for no other reason, then he double 800/1600 rather then 1600/3200.
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Post by xcrunr22 on Oct 31, 2007 17:58:30 GMT -5
dbandre---In order to have greater speed than someone you would have to run a faster time...if you are projecting that Thompson will run 14:37 that is 20 seconds slower than the time that Stevens ran his senior year at state.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Oct 31, 2007 18:09:47 GMT -5
I am pretty sure that dbandre was comparing Stevens and Parker based off of where they were/are time wise and their year in school. The are a couple of things to remember 1. PT is just a junior, 2. He hasn't even run state this year to compare exactly yet, 3. Lastly the one test for me is that Stevens went sub 9 in the 3200. That is going to be tough to beat.
Anyway, dbandre's point is that when comparing them they have fairly similar times at the same ages.
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Post by dbandre on Nov 1, 2007 0:17:21 GMT -5
At the same points in their careers. Stevens has a slight edge over 3 miles in XC, but in track at 800m and 1600m Thompson has a clear edge in events that require greater top end speed.
Let's remember Stevens had probably the best state XC finals race of anyone running alone for 2.5 miles to improbable time as a senior. That same year he ran Amboy in 14:11. This year Thompson turned on the jets at .5 miles to go and won in 14:38 at amboy. He's certainly capable of sub 14:40 and with this field I expect the winner to be at worst 14:45 unless the weather dictates otherwise. If he can a 15:09 pace at Amboy he can run a 14:40 at Detweiler.
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Post by newpackman on Nov 1, 2007 11:35:11 GMT -5
Amboy is fastert then detwiller. Also the pure fact of his high caliber top end speed is why he is more like Ulrey and not Stevens. When Stevens won state his senior year, he ran from the gun, and broke the field. Thompson will sit and wait, just like Hatch did the year he won it. I also think you are underestmating what Hatch could have done if the weither had been better his junior year.
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Post by dbandre on Nov 1, 2007 12:19:35 GMT -5
Amboy is not faster than Detweiler, It's shorter than Detweiler.
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Post by irishcross on Nov 1, 2007 12:57:16 GMT -5
Amboy is 2.9 miles...
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Post by dbandre on Nov 1, 2007 13:01:06 GMT -5
Are you sure it's not 2.8?
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Post by badkarma96 on Nov 1, 2007 19:45:07 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it is 2.9. I seem to remember seeing it on a result sheet or something.
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Post by ilclassaxc on Nov 1, 2007 22:15:07 GMT -5
dbandre, it is 2.9 miles. It isn't shorter than that, but it has been a tad longer when wheeled in the past. Plus, you should ask everyone how much they like the hill. It makes it very close to the state course in terms of time and most people that I have talked to over the years says that they all say it is 2.9 miles.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Nov 2, 2007 10:19:52 GMT -5
when I ran at amboy years ago it was said to be 2.95...
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Post by dbandre on Nov 2, 2007 11:52:44 GMT -5
the conversion from the race pace time is 2.9 miles
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Post by newpackman on Nov 2, 2007 12:38:45 GMT -5
Ok top ten indivdual predictions.
1. Trenton Tedrick-Over looked all year, he now get's his chance to shine as he is patient, and grinds out Parker.
2. Parker Thompson-Ok this kid is great, and he is going to be in the mix to win the whole way. Even if he gets beat this year, he's got next year to put down a time for the age's.
3. Matt Feldhake-He'll have his fait in his own hands. A fast pace may favor him more then anybody else in the feild. Don't count him out yet.
4. Matt Paalberg-I missed this kid all year, untill I saw him at sectionals. Great runner, and will have a huge inpact on who wins this thing.
5. Brian Peterson-Running well all year, in the mix all the way and if he gets a chance could very well take the title himself.
6. Grahm Morris-I don't know much about this kid, but his times are really strong, and I think he'll contended.
7. Dustin Emrick-Another strong racer who could take the title. Looking to help with a upset if he can take Tedrick.
8. Sean Smith-Part of Bago's three headed monster he's run right behind Tedrick all year.
9. Jordan Patterson-Just keeps getting stronger all year. He's come along way, and he might just have enough magic to crack the top 5.
10. Trace Carlson-Good luck tc, a higher finish is really possible.
That's my prediction, and I'm sticking to it.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Nov 2, 2007 15:48:37 GMT -5
newpackman what are your time predictions for each person?
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Post by illini1 on Nov 2, 2007 18:04:44 GMT -5
FAST
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Nov 2, 2007 19:37:58 GMT -5
Well here are my individual predictions (I am going to go out on a limb here)...
1. Matt Feldhake (14:46)
2. Parker Thompson (14:49)
3. Brian Peterson (14:50)
4. Trenton Tedrick (14:55)
5. Matt Paalberg (14:59)
6. Grahm Morris (15:01)
7. Sean Smith (15:05)
8. Trace Carlson (15:07)
9. Mike Miroux (15:10)
10. Justin Rehfeldt (15:12) This may prove once and for all that I don't have a clue ;D
When it is all said and done I think there are 5-6 guys that can win this thing and it all depends upon the early pace. The weather isn't going to be great, but it isn't going to be horrible either. I think Feldhake will do what matters most - winning the last one! I think Matt will push the middle mile and break the comp, but PT will battle back and make it a close finish.
I wish I could be there to witness it all cause it is going to be electric!!! Best wishes to every competitor. I hope everyone competing has a lot of fun and runs their best race tomorrow. I hope everbody proves someone wrong! Got get em!
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Post by badkarma96 on Nov 2, 2007 20:17:18 GMT -5
This may prove once and for all that I don't have a clue ;D quote] You forgot Emerick from Elmwood has run 15:03. I was hoping to be there but I'm going to miss it too. I feel your pain Ben.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Nov 2, 2007 20:23:45 GMT -5
I like Emerick and he is definitely a wild card, but....I thought that he would be one of my upset picks actually. I initially had him in my top 5, but I like the freshman from RC to shut him out of the top 10. There are a number of guys that could really throw a wrench in my picks. Pacey...Logan Block could really surprise some people too. He would have been really, really tough had he not suffered an injury. To tell you the truth it was hard making the selections, because there are some quality kids. This has the potential to go down as the greatest day in Class A history.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Nov 3, 2007 11:39:54 GMT -5
I have to say that I am not at all surprised by the results except that I did think a few more guys would go sub 15. Maybe it was too cold I definitely should have left Emerick in my top 5, but I was really puzzled by his sectional race and was thinking that he was running with some tired legs (which is why I pulled him out of my top 5). I was definitely partial to Feldhake even though deep down my gut said to go with PT. At least I got PT's time right ;D Anyway, great job to all of the competitors. Nice year! Congratulations to Logan Block for coming back to make All-State after all he went through this year. Logan will tear up the track this Spring. Has it been fun or what watching this year take shape?
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Post by badkarma96 on Nov 3, 2007 12:03:52 GMT -5
I talk to my buddy's mom on the phone after the race and she said Emerick was in the lead with 800 to go and Thompson ran him down. It looks like Peterson nipped him at the line too.
My boy Jordan Patterson ran a good race. She said he was in 25th at the 800 mark, 12th at the mile and 6th coming out of the triangle.
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benmanion
All-State
"It's not just what you do that matters, it's how you do it"
Posts: 124
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Post by benmanion on Nov 3, 2007 12:15:29 GMT -5
Do you know what kind of lead Emerick had? Anyone know any of the splits and who was where at the 1 & 2 marks?
Give Thompson credit - he kept it close enough to do what he does best.
Incidentally, have any of you heard the sad news? Ryan Shay collapsed 5.5 miles into the US Trials (Marathon) and died. Very sad news indeed!
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