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Post by pacemaker on Oct 14, 2007 17:34:06 GMT -5
Brain Peterson won with a 14:55 yesterday but depending on weather conditions who knows what could happen, what do ya think?( assuming that no one runs sub 14:20)
as for my pick i will take parker thompson
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kcor
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Post by kcor on Oct 14, 2007 18:34:01 GMT -5
Feldhake 14:30
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Post by sparky791 on Oct 14, 2007 18:36:51 GMT -5
I am picking Feldhake. I think now that Soccer is done he will come on strong.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 14, 2007 18:40:10 GMT -5
I would say low 14:40s. My thought is that if Feldhake wins he is going to have to win by 4-5 seconds, because if it comes down to the wire I would say Thompson has the edge. Feldhake has to neutralize the foot speed of P.T. I think there are about 5 guys that can win and my guess is there will be at least 4 under 15!
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Post by notebook on Oct 14, 2007 19:13:12 GMT -5
Who do you guess will be under 15:00?
Parker Thompson Brian Peterson Matt Feldhake Dustin Emerick ? ? ?
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Post by silent3runner on Oct 14, 2007 19:30:50 GMT -5
parker will with ummm 14:27
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Post by badkarma96 on Oct 14, 2007 19:48:29 GMT -5
Parker with 14:45 and winning by about 5 seconds. Feldhake, Peterson and Emerick all between 14:50 -14:59 with Patterson and Tedrick knocking at the door. After that it is kinda anyone's guess. I think we'll see at least one more Elmwood guy, two Robinson guys, Rochester (one of the Shunks), dude from Shelbyville, Miroux, one or two more 'Bago guys and whoever else.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 14, 2007 20:07:39 GMT -5
First, I don't think there is anyway Parker is under 14:30 unless the winding is blowing at his back all day long. This isn't a slam on Thompson, but I just don't see it.
I think these guys are under 15 (if the weather is good):
Parker Thompson Brian Peterson Matt Feldhake Dustin Emerick
Tedrick, Morris, & Patterson are capable!
If all these guys go under it will depend upon two things: 1. Weather 2. Guys not going out to aggressively and not being able to sustain the pace..
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Post by fastbutnotquick on Oct 14, 2007 21:28:10 GMT -5
i agree with benmanion on the factors. i believe the weather will be a major factor but as for the pacing, i believe that wont be a problem. I think those guys that will be in the lead pack are smart enough and confident enough to run their races despite how fast the rabbits go out. I am very excited about this years state meet because i think it will give the crowd a race to remember! good luck to all
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Post by newpackman on Oct 14, 2007 21:44:26 GMT -5
Might as well throw in on this. I'll take Parker for the win in a time of 14:30. Then in order.... 1Thompson 2Feldhake 3Tedrick 4Peterson 5Emerick
That's just me guessing, and I know Peterson should be ahead of Tedrick, but I'd like to see Trenton pull it out. Also Rochester is Double A now, I know it counfused me multiple times.
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fal
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Post by fal on Oct 14, 2007 22:55:41 GMT -5
I'd have to go with newpackmans predictions, although I think it will be a close battle between Tedrick and Feldhake for second. Feldhake is a great runner, but he lost some of his potential when he wore himself out with soccer, and I'm just not sure if he will be able to get it back. Tedrick will give him a run for his money.
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Post by huttorunner4life on Oct 15, 2007 18:42:45 GMT -5
Could you imagine if Block was healthy? This year would have more guys under 15:00 than in 2005. I wish I could watch the race at the same time that I was in it because it's going to be so awesome.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 15, 2007 20:34:39 GMT -5
It is going to be a close race with a very strong lead pack. I am anxious for the results. I would love to be there in person, but I will have to wait it out in Charlotte, NC.
For those of you students of the sport you know that there have been some incredible years in the 70s and 80s that had class A races with numerous guys under 15 and the all-state line at 15:20. This could be another year with fast times, especially if the weather continues to be this good!
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Post by runnerfan on Oct 16, 2007 22:13:37 GMT -5
1. Thompson 14:36 2. Tedrick 14:53 3. Feldhake 14:55
I hope Thompson goes out and takes control of the race early to show what he can do. This kid is going to be good. I call he comes close to Steven's record next year.
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Post by huttorunner4life on Oct 16, 2007 23:37:43 GMT -5
If Peterson just ran a 14:58, then I think he'll be faster than 14:55 after 3 more weeks of training. Also I think Parker is looking tough, but there is that handfull of guys who could do it on the right day.
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Post by oldskool on Oct 17, 2007 7:43:10 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time guessing the winning time, but my individual favorite has to be Parker Thompson, hands down.
The reason I can't speculate on the winning time is because of how Parker has ran every single race this year. He sits back with the pack, content to let others take the lead, and blows them away the last mile. It seems a win is a win to him--be it 14:46 like at Amboy or 17 min at a duel somewhere. I submit there is nobody in A who can hang with him the last mile, let alone the last 800. So, it will depend largely on how fast they come through the 2 mile point, because he turns on the afterburners soon after that.
Championship level races can be tricky when top guys key off one another and let the pace slow down. If Feldhake and Peterson do that they've lost the race before it even gets going. I doubt they will, but you never know.
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Post by badkarma96 on Oct 17, 2007 10:11:36 GMT -5
You wouldn't have thought that they would have slowed the pace down in the World Championship 5000 meter run but they did and Bernard Lagat ran away with it the last kilometer.
I don't think Thompson is going to lose unless he decides to take it out hard and lead wire-to-wire. Even then, he'll probabaly pull it off.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 17, 2007 11:18:37 GMT -5
Thompson is good and at this point I would probably lean towards him now. However, three weeks is enough time for Matt to get rested and put in some quality training between now and then. Lastly, Thompson is a very good 800/1600 guy, but 800/1600 studs very rarely win the cross title. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win, but I would say that it has to mean something.
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Post by oldskool on Oct 17, 2007 12:01:41 GMT -5
There are major differences between the WC 5k this past summer and the state xc championships, but that isn't the point. If any of those guys are going to beat Parker they're going to have to blow him away the first 2 miles, I'm saying like 9:30 or something crazy that'll take the bite out of his kick. Feldhake went through 2 miles in only 9:54 last year. That won't be enough to get rid of Thompson this November, not by a longshot, especially when Feldhake's last mile was his slowest (and that is always Parker's fastest). Plus, I wouldn't assume that Parker is only an 800/1600 guy at this point. Maybe someone could help me out with this, but he ran a 9:50-ish 2mile very early in track and never ran the event again last year and was one of the first in A to break 10 last spring.
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Post by badkarma96 on Oct 17, 2007 12:43:12 GMT -5
800/1600 guys may not win cross country state titles very often but if an 800/1600 guy is in contact with the leaders in the last 800 meters of a three mile race, I'm going to say that 800/1600 guy is going to win. Thompson has proved that he learned how to race smart this year. He's going to run fast enough to win and Feldhake, Peterson, Emerick, Tedrick, Patterson, et al. are going to have to crank out crazy fast two mile splits and hope that Thompson has a bad day and isn't within five seconds of the leader with 400 to go.
I only bring up the WC 5000 because Lagat probably wouldn't have won double gold if someone had taken the race out hard and pushed the pace. Instead they settled into a nice conservative pace and it came down to who had the best kick. I have a feeling that Thompson watched the WC 5000 this summer.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 17, 2007 12:44:50 GMT -5
Yeah Parker is really soild. For sure Matt can't run the same race as last year and just let the first mile go. I think if Matt isn't afraid of losing at sectionals and just gearing up for state he could pull it off.
I think this compairs to the 2004 showdown between Stevens and Hatch. I'm not saying that either is as good as Stevens or Hatch, but they race in the same way. For those of you who don't remember what happend in 04 was Stevens had the lead for most of the race, but didn't really try and push the pace. He thought he could hold of anybody in the feild, and in about the final 800 Hatch used his much better finishing speed to blow Stevens away. If Matt wan't to win he might stand a better chance if he runs 05 version of that showdown, when Stevens just ran from the front, and pushed all the way through to take Hatch out of the race before he had a chance.
Sorry about a really long post, but that is really what I think this is like. Won't be the low 14's that Stevens posted, but Hatches 14:5ish to win in 05 might be alittle closer. This year compairs alot to that year, even with guys like Peterson being alot like guys like Bradford.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 17, 2007 12:53:30 GMT -5
Don't forget in August Feldhake ran 8:50ish for 3K. He certainly has the ability to take it low at the 2 mile. I think Thompson has lots of ability, but to crown him now is a bit absurd. I know that lots of things can happen between now and then, as well as, race day. There have been a lot of guys that could have won the title, but didn't. There are so many factors that affect the outcome of the race. To say that to beat Thompson someone is going to have to take it out at 9:30 is very speculative. Who is to say that going through at 9:45 wouldn't be enough or 9:50. PT hasn't really been challenged this year and Matt hasn't really run fresh all year. As I said earlier, I would give the edge to PT, but I don't think you can rule out a number of guys...and I don't think anyone knows the split that will burn out his kick. I think it will come down to the ability to get out fast and who wants it more. The unfortunate side of all this is that Block won't be competing, b/c he would have given em all a run for their money.
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Post by circuit on Oct 17, 2007 13:00:34 GMT -5
don't assume that feldhake will win the PBL sectional race and save something for state. Justin Jones and several others at the sectional might have something to say about how much Matt might be able to cruise.
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dacse
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Post by dacse on Oct 17, 2007 13:24:47 GMT -5
What do you guys think about a lesser known runner taking the title? I was thinking someone like Morris from Lawrenceville. This kid keeps improving as the season goes on and now that he has beaten Feldhake he has to have a lot of confidence in his ability.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 17, 2007 14:10:55 GMT -5
I think Morris has a very good chance. He is really starting to roll and he is definitely a threat. This race is going to be a big gut check for the leaders. However, I do think that if it is close with 8 to go and PT is in the mix - I don't see how he can lose. I do agree that to beat PT you are going to have to punish him with the pace. There is a pace that will disarm his great weapon (the kick). I don't necessarily agree that it has to be 9:30 at the 2 mark. On the other hand, I don't really know what that pace needs to be. I think the middle mile champion will most liklely be your winner - he will really have to push the middle mile. I think to win this race that guy has to get out hard, but very much in control and really hammer the triangle. The triangle has the tendency to be the place where guys drop pretenders. If someone can take it through 2 around 9:4 to 9:45 that could be enough to build a sizeable lead to win this thing. I am excited b/c I think there is going to be a huge lead pack!
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Post by xcndns on Oct 17, 2007 14:11:28 GMT -5
I agree, Morris is little known at this point. He only races in the South. But races Feldhake all the time. He might not win it but could put a kink in some other runners finishes.
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kcor
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Post by kcor on Oct 17, 2007 14:25:30 GMT -5
Yeah Parker is really soild. For sure Matt can't run the same race as last year and just let the first mile go. I think if Matt isn't afraid of losing at sectionals and just gearing up for state he could pull it off. I think this compairs to the 2004 showdown between Stevens and Hatch. I'm not saying that either is as good as Stevens or Hatch, but they race in the same way. For those of you who don't remember what happend in 04 was Stevens had the lead for most of the race, but didn't really try and push the pace. He thought he could hold of anybody in the feild, and in about the final 800 Hatch used his much better finishing speed to blow Stevens away. If Matt wan't to win he might stand a better chance if he runs 05 version of that showdown, when Stevens just ran from the front, and pushed all the way through to take Hatch out of the race before he had a chance. Sorry about a really long post, but that is really what I think this is like. Won't be the low 14's that Stevens posted, but Hatches 14:5ish to win in 05 might be alittle closer. This year compairs alot to that year, even with guys like Peterson being alot like guys like Bradford. Matt of course isn't afraid to lose at sectionals. Hes not going to dog it either tho. He comes to race, and races to win.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 17, 2007 15:34:34 GMT -5
I wasn't saying dog sectionals (That would have no real worth, as he could easily recover in time for state). I'm saying train through sectionals. That would get him one good week of training, that most other guys in the state won't be takeing.
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benmanion
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Post by benmanion on Oct 17, 2007 16:18:59 GMT -5
newpackman - I understood completely what you meant. I think that the mere fact that he isn't racing 3 times per week and doing soccer will allow him to get rested before state. I think this will give him fresh legs.
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Post by newpackman on Oct 17, 2007 17:20:19 GMT -5
I agree there should be a huge front pack at the state meet, considering we haven't had a true front pack in two years. I wouldn't right out Justin Jones from Oakwood either. I think he's got just as much shot as Morris. I wonder who will lead the first mile? I'd say if Matt wants to win this thing, then leading at the mile might not be a bad idea. Make it an all guts race as Pre would say. It might be the best shot, IF he can just drop these other studs one at a time.
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